Traders assign an 87.5% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027 because U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in January and February 2026 produced no breakthrough on core issues. Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory, formal recognition of annexed regions, Ukrainian neutrality, and limits on its military, while rejecting binding Western security guarantees that exclude NATO involvement. Formal negotiations have not resumed since early 2026, with U.S. officials describing prior efforts as unfruitful and Russian positions unchanged. Battlefield advances by Russian forces persist alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes, and no scheduled diplomatic milestones or concessions indicate imminent resolution by year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
13% probabilidad
$2,652,712 Vol.
$2,652,712 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
13% probabilidad
$2,652,712 Vol.
$2,652,712 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign an 87.5% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027 because U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in January and February 2026 produced no breakthrough on core issues. Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory, formal recognition of annexed regions, Ukrainian neutrality, and limits on its military, while rejecting binding Western security guarantees that exclude NATO involvement. Formal negotiations have not resumed since early 2026, with U.S. officials describing prior efforts as unfruitful and Russian positions unchanged. Battlefield advances by Russian forces persist alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes, and no scheduled diplomatic milestones or concessions indicate imminent resolution by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volumen
$2,652,712Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Traders assign an 87.5% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027 because U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in January and February 2026 produced no breakthrough on core issues. Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory, formal recognition of annexed regions, Ukrainian neutrality, and limits on its military, while rejecting binding Western security guarantees that exclude NATO involvement. Formal negotiations have not resumed since early 2026, with U.S. officials describing prior efforts as unfruitful and Russian positions unchanged. Battlefield advances by Russian forces persist alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes, and no scheduled diplomatic milestones or concessions indicate imminent resolution by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,652,712Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 87.5% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027 because U.S.-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva in January and February 2026 produced no breakthrough on core issues. Russia continues to insist on Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory, formal recognition of annexed regions, Ukrainian neutrality, and limits on its military, while rejecting binding Western security guarantees that exclude NATO involvement. Formal negotiations have not resumed since early 2026, with U.S. officials describing prior efforts as unfruitful and Russian positions unchanged. Battlefield advances by Russian forces persist alongside Ukrainian long-range strikes, and no scheduled diplomatic milestones or concessions indicate imminent resolution by year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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