Apple's long-standing annual iPhone cadence, with flagship Pro models consistently launching in September, underpins the near-certain market consensus for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, along with a new foldable model, were formally announced on September 9 and began shipping later that month, aligning with historical patterns and supply-chain confirmations. While the base iPhone 18 appears delayed until spring 2027 as part of a split-launch strategy, traders view the Pro variants as fulfilling the core expectation. Rare disruptive factors, such as severe component shortages, regulatory blocks on key features, or an unprecedented postponement of the entire lineup, could theoretically alter outcomes, though none show credible signs of materializing before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
>99% probabilidad
$251,953 Vol.
$251,953 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
>99% probabilidad
$251,953 Vol.
$251,953 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual iPhone cadence, with flagship Pro models consistently launching in September, underpins the near-certain market consensus for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, along with a new foldable model, were formally announced on September 9 and began shipping later that month, aligning with historical patterns and supply-chain confirmations. While the base iPhone 18 appears delayed until spring 2027 as part of a split-launch strategy, traders view the Pro variants as fulfilling the core expectation. Rare disruptive factors, such as severe component shortages, regulatory blocks on key features, or an unprecedented postponement of the entire lineup, could theoretically alter outcomes, though none show credible signs of materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$251,953Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual iPhone cadence, with flagship Pro models consistently launching in September, underpins the near-certain market consensus for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, along with a new foldable model, were formally announced on September 9 and began shipping later that month, aligning with historical patterns and supply-chain confirmations. While the base iPhone 18 appears delayed until spring 2027 as part of a split-launch strategy, traders view the Pro variants as fulfilling the core expectation. Rare disruptive factors, such as severe component shortages, regulatory blocks on key features, or an unprecedented postponement of the entire lineup, could theoretically alter outcomes, though none show credible signs of materializing before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$251,953Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing annual iPhone cadence, with flagship Pro models consistently launching in September, underpins the near-certain market consensus for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, along with a new foldable model, were formally announced on September 9 and began shipping later that month, aligning with historical patterns and supply-chain confirmations. While the base iPhone 18 appears delayed until spring 2027 as part of a split-launch strategy, traders view the Pro variants as fulfilling the core expectation. Rare disruptive factors, such as severe component shortages, regulatory blocks on key features, or an unprecedented postponement of the entire lineup, could theoretically alter outcomes, though none show credible signs of materializing before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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