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icon for California Governor Election Winner
Elections·California Midterm

California Governor Election Winner

icon for California Governor Election Winner
Elections·California Midterm

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra 94.4%

Steve Hilton 5.5%

Rick Caruso <1%

Alex Padilla <1%

Polymarket

$41,156,900 Vol.

Xavier Becerra 94.4%

Steve Hilton 5.5%

Rick Caruso <1%

Alex Padilla <1%

Polymarket

$41,156,900 Vol.

Xavier Becerra

$2,028,448 Vol.

94%

Steve Hilton

$2,813,512 Vol.

5%

Rick Caruso

$1,797,432 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$1,996,672 Vol.

<1%

Katie Porter

$1,770,134 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$1,617,980 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$1,572,637 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$1,313,396 Vol.

<1%

Betty Yee

$1,748,031 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$1,557,569 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$1,828,759 Vol.

<1%

Chad Bianco

$1,947,262 Vol.

<1%

Eleni Kounalakis

$1,431,189 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$1,396,558 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$1,425,708 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$1,546,580 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$1,094,831 Vol.

<1%

Nicole Shanahan

$1,778,283 Vol.

<1%

Eric Swalwell

$1,497,145 Vol.

<1%

Tom Steyer

$4,794,709 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$1,567,326 Vol.

<1%

Matt Mahan

$1,370,450 Vol.

<1%

Elaine Culotti

$1,262,363 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Xavier Becerra holds a dominant position in the 2026 California gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polling, including a 60-38 percent margin among likely voters in the latest Public Policy Institute of California survey. He advanced from the June top-two primary alongside Republican Steve Hilton after a crowded Democratic field fractured, capitalizing on endorsements and his record as former state attorney general and U.S. health secretary. California's Democratic registration advantage of roughly two-to-one, combined with strong partisan loyalty, underpins trader consensus, while Hilton's Trump endorsement and focus on affordability and Sacramento reform have not narrowed the gap in battleground regions. With the November 3 general election weeks away, late developments such as major scandals or turnout surprises could still shift the outcome, though current polling aggregates show little movement.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$41,156,900
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Xavier Becerra holds a dominant position in the 2026 California gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polling, including a 60-38 percent margin among likely voters in the latest Public Policy Institute of California survey. He advanced from the June top-two primary alongside Republican Steve Hilton after a crowded Democratic field fractured, capitalizing on endorsements and his record as former state attorney general and U.S. health secretary. California's Democratic registration advantage of roughly two-to-one, combined with strong partisan loyalty, underpins trader consensus, while Hilton's Trump endorsement and focus on affordability and Sacramento reform have not narrowed the gap in battleground regions. With the November 3 general election weeks away, late developments such as major scandals or turnout surprises could still shift the outcome, though current polling aggregates show little movement.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$41,156,900
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Xavier Becerra" at 94%, followed by "Steve Hilton" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "California Governor Election Winner" has generated $41.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "California Governor Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "California Governor Election Winner" is "Xavier Becerra" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Steve Hilton" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "California Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.