Chicago leads trader consensus for the first measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or more) of the 2026–27 season among major Midwest and Northeast cities, driven by its proximity to Lake Michigan and greater exposure to early-season lake-effect snow bands. Historical median dates place Chicago’s first accumulation between early and mid-November, slightly ahead of New York City and Detroit, with St. Louis typically later. A strengthening El Niño pattern, now carrying over 90% probability of a significant event per NOAA, favors a wetter storm track across the southern and central U.S. while modulating cold-air outbreaks. Long-range guidance from the Climate Prediction Center and updated seasonal models will provide the next key data points on October temperature and precipitation anomalies, directly influencing implied probabilities ahead of the typical onset window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFirst snow of the 2026 season

Buffalo, NY by October 31
54%

Denver, CO by October 31
64%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
56%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
51%

Boston, MA by November 15
59%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
92%

Chicago, IL by November 15
64%

Denver, CO by November 15
73%

Detroit, MI by November 15
91%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
77%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
31%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
75%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
63%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
73%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
92%

Chicago, IL by November 30
78%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
29%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
85%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
65%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
42%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
80%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
67%

Washington, DC by November 30
43%
$7,092 Vol.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
54%

Denver, CO by October 31
64%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
56%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
51%

Boston, MA by November 15
59%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
92%

Chicago, IL by November 15
64%

Denver, CO by November 15
73%

Detroit, MI by November 15
91%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
77%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
31%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
75%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
63%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
73%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
92%

Chicago, IL by November 30
78%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
29%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
85%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
65%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
42%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
80%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
67%

Washington, DC by November 30
43%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Chicago leads trader consensus for the first measurable snowfall (0.1 inch or more) of the 2026–27 season among major Midwest and Northeast cities, driven by its proximity to Lake Michigan and greater exposure to early-season lake-effect snow bands. Historical median dates place Chicago’s first accumulation between early and mid-November, slightly ahead of New York City and Detroit, with St. Louis typically later. A strengthening El Niño pattern, now carrying over 90% probability of a significant event per NOAA, favors a wetter storm track across the southern and central U.S. while modulating cold-air outbreaks. Long-range guidance from the Climate Prediction Center and updated seasonal models will provide the next key data points on October temperature and precipitation anomalies, directly influencing implied probabilities ahead of the typical onset window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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