OpenAI’s decision to defer its IPO until 2027 or later, prioritizing a $1 trillion valuation target over a 2026 debut at the recent $852 billion private mark, drives the current Polymarket odds. Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar cited safety priorities, the need for further business inflection, and caution from comparable listings as key reasons, following the June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and $122 billion March funding round. Trader consensus prices a $100 billion-plus raise at 39 percent implied probability, reflecting the scale of prior private capital needs and compute commitments, while the 25 percent odds on under $30 billion capture uncertainty around offering size, timing, and potential dilution at elevated valuations. Upcoming catalysts include any revenue acceleration or regulatory signals that could clarify the path to public markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$100B+ 39%
<$30B 25.1%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
$70B–$80B 8.7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2027
<$30B
25%
$30B–$40B
4%
$40B–$50B
24%
$50B–$60B
6%
$60B–$70B
8%
$70B–$80B
9%
$80B–$90B
21%
$90B–$100B
3%
$100B+
39%
$100B+ 39%
<$30B 25.1%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
$70B–$80B 8.7%
NEW
NEW
Dec 30, 2027
<$30B
$603 Vol.
25%
$30B–$40B
$463 Vol.
4%
$40B–$50B
$1,621 Vol.
24%
$50B–$60B
$1,153 Vol.
6%
$60B–$70B
$499 Vol.
8%
$70B–$80B
$489 Vol.
9%
$80B–$90B
$448 Vol.
21%
$90B–$100B
$306 Vol.
3%
$100B+
$1,742 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s decision to defer its IPO until 2027 or later, prioritizing a $1 trillion valuation target over a 2026 debut at the recent $852 billion private mark, drives the current Polymarket odds. Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar cited safety priorities, the need for further business inflection, and caution from comparable listings as key reasons, following the June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and $122 billion March funding round. Trader consensus prices a $100 billion-plus raise at 39 percent implied probability, reflecting the scale of prior private capital needs and compute commitments, while the 25 percent odds on under $30 billion capture uncertainty around offering size, timing, and potential dilution at elevated valuations. Upcoming catalysts include any revenue acceleration or regulatory signals that could clarify the path to public markets.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$7,324End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s decision to defer its IPO until 2027 or later, prioritizing a $1 trillion valuation target over a 2026 debut at the recent $852 billion private mark, drives the current Polymarket odds. Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar cited safety priorities, the need for further business inflection, and caution from comparable listings as key reasons, following the June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and $122 billion March funding round. Trader consensus prices a $100 billion-plus raise at 39 percent implied probability, reflecting the scale of prior private capital needs and compute commitments, while the 25 percent odds on under $30 billion capture uncertainty around offering size, timing, and potential dilution at elevated valuations. Upcoming catalysts include any revenue acceleration or regulatory signals that could clarify the path to public markets.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,324End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s decision to defer its IPO until 2027 or later, prioritizing a $1 trillion valuation target over a 2026 debut at the recent $852 billion private mark, drives the current Polymarket odds. Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar cited safety priorities, the need for further business inflection, and caution from comparable listings as key reasons, following the June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and $122 billion March funding round. Trader consensus prices a $100 billion-plus raise at 39 percent implied probability, reflecting the scale of prior private capital needs and compute commitments, while the 25 percent odds on under $30 billion capture uncertainty around offering size, timing, and potential dilution at elevated valuations. Upcoming catalysts include any revenue acceleration or regulatory signals that could clarify the path to public markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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