India’s annual CPI inflation for 2026-27 is priced at a 90.5% chance of finishing at or above 4.50% because recent monthly readings have climbed steadily, reaching 4.82% in August amid rising food prices and broader cost pressures. The Reserve Bank of India’s latest projection centers on a 5.0% average for the fiscal year, with quarterly peaks near 5.9% driven by vegetable prices, elevated crude oil costs, and uneven monsoon impacts. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory, as wholesale inflation has also accelerated and analysts highlight risks of generalized pressures persisting into late 2026. A sharper-than-expected moderation in food or energy prices, or a stronger harvest, could still pull the annual figure lower, though current data and central-bank guidance support the elevated range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4.50%+ 91%
3.75% to 4.49% 4.3%
<0.75% 1.8%
3.00% to 3.74% <1%
$85,558 Vol.
$85,558 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<0.75%
2%
0.75% to 1.49%
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
<1%
2.25% to 2.99%
<1%
3.00% to 3.74%
1%
3.75% to 4.49%
4%
4.50%+
91%
4.50%+ 91%
3.75% to 4.49% 4.3%
<0.75% 1.8%
3.00% to 3.74% <1%
$85,558 Vol.
$85,558 Vol.
Jan 11, 2027
<0.75%
$2,299 Vol.
2%
0.75% to 1.49%
$1,520 Vol.
<1%
1.50% to 2.24%
$1,580 Vol.
<1%
2.25% to 2.99%
$25,446 Vol.
<1%
3.00% to 3.74%
$2,410 Vol.
1%
3.75% to 4.49%
$31,905 Vol.
4%
4.50%+
$20,397 Vol.
91%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfIndia’s annual CPI inflation for 2026-27 is priced at a 90.5% chance of finishing at or above 4.50% because recent monthly readings have climbed steadily, reaching 4.82% in August amid rising food prices and broader cost pressures. The Reserve Bank of India’s latest projection centers on a 5.0% average for the fiscal year, with quarterly peaks near 5.9% driven by vegetable prices, elevated crude oil costs, and uneven monsoon impacts. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory, as wholesale inflation has also accelerated and analysts highlight risks of generalized pressures persisting into late 2026. A sharper-than-expected moderation in food or energy prices, or a stronger harvest, could still pull the annual figure lower, though current data and central-bank guidance support the elevated range.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$85,558End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfIndia’s annual CPI inflation for 2026-27 is priced at a 90.5% chance of finishing at or above 4.50% because recent monthly readings have climbed steadily, reaching 4.82% in August amid rising food prices and broader cost pressures. The Reserve Bank of India’s latest projection centers on a 5.0% average for the fiscal year, with quarterly peaks near 5.9% driven by vegetable prices, elevated crude oil costs, and uneven monsoon impacts. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory, as wholesale inflation has also accelerated and analysts highlight risks of generalized pressures persisting into late 2026. A sharper-than-expected moderation in food or energy prices, or a stronger harvest, could still pull the annual figure lower, though current data and central-bank guidance support the elevated range.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$85,558End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...India’s annual CPI inflation for 2026-27 is priced at a 90.5% chance of finishing at or above 4.50% because recent monthly readings have climbed steadily, reaching 4.82% in August amid rising food prices and broader cost pressures. The Reserve Bank of India’s latest projection centers on a 5.0% average for the fiscal year, with quarterly peaks near 5.9% driven by vegetable prices, elevated crude oil costs, and uneven monsoon impacts. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory, as wholesale inflation has also accelerated and analysts highlight risks of generalized pressures persisting into late 2026. A sharper-than-expected moderation in food or energy prices, or a stronger harvest, could still pull the annual figure lower, though current data and central-bank guidance support the elevated range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions