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Is Earth flat?

icon for Is Earth flat?

Is Earth flat?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$57,938 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$57,938 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Overwhelming scientific consensus from centuries of measurements, satellite imagery, and global navigation systems drives the 99.4% implied probability on "No" for the flat Earth question. Traders see no credible challenge to established physics or geography, with public discourse treating flat Earth claims mainly as fringe cultural memes rather than serious contenders. Historical patterns show pseudoscience narratives occasionally spike in media attention yet fail to shift expert or voter-like consensus in prediction markets. Realistic upset scenarios remain remote, limited to an unprecedented global revelation or coordinated misinformation campaign that somehow overrides observable evidence, an outcome without precedent in modern records.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$57,938
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 5:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Overwhelming scientific consensus from centuries of measurements, satellite imagery, and global navigation systems drives the 99.4% implied probability on "No" for the flat Earth question. Traders see no credible challenge to established physics or geography, with public discourse treating flat Earth claims mainly as fringe cultural memes rather than serious contenders. Historical patterns show pseudoscience narratives occasionally spike in media attention yet fail to shift expert or voter-like consensus in prediction markets. Realistic upset scenarios remain remote, limited to an unprecedented global revelation or coordinated misinformation campaign that somehow overrides observable evidence, an outcome without precedent in modern records.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if conclusive proof that the earth is flat becomes public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$57,938
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 8, 2026, 5:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Is Earth flat?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 1% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 1¢, the market collectively assigns a 1% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Is Earth flat?" has generated $57.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Is Earth flat?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Is Earth flat?" is 1% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 1% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Is Earth flat?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.