Strong FOMC and private-sector forecasts anchor the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth, with the September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showing a 2.3% median Q4/Q4 expansion and private estimates clustered between 2.0% and 2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and a stable labor market—unemployment near 4.1% and solid payroll gains—have kept quarterly growth positive, including the 1.5% annualized Q2 print. These factors, reinforced by above-trend productivity and contained recession signals, underpin trader consensus that full-year contraction remains unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC meeting and further inflation and employment releases, though tail risks such as sharper geopolitical shocks or persistent supply-driven inflation could still pressure the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$33,419 Vol.
$33,419 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
2% chance
$33,419 Vol.
$33,419 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong FOMC and private-sector forecasts anchor the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth, with the September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showing a 2.3% median Q4/Q4 expansion and private estimates clustered between 2.0% and 2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and a stable labor market—unemployment near 4.1% and solid payroll gains—have kept quarterly growth positive, including the 1.5% annualized Q2 print. These factors, reinforced by above-trend productivity and contained recession signals, underpin trader consensus that full-year contraction remains unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC meeting and further inflation and employment releases, though tail risks such as sharper geopolitical shocks or persistent supply-driven inflation could still pressure the outlook.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$33,419End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong FOMC and private-sector forecasts anchor the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth, with the September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showing a 2.3% median Q4/Q4 expansion and private estimates clustered between 2.0% and 2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and a stable labor market—unemployment near 4.1% and solid payroll gains—have kept quarterly growth positive, including the 1.5% annualized Q2 print. These factors, reinforced by above-trend productivity and contained recession signals, underpin trader consensus that full-year contraction remains unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC meeting and further inflation and employment releases, though tail risks such as sharper geopolitical shocks or persistent supply-driven inflation could still pressure the outlook.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$33,419End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong FOMC and private-sector forecasts anchor the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth, with the September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections showing a 2.3% median Q4/Q4 expansion and private estimates clustered between 2.0% and 2.2%. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and a stable labor market—unemployment near 4.1% and solid payroll gains—have kept quarterly growth positive, including the 1.5% annualized Q2 print. These factors, reinforced by above-trend productivity and contained recession signals, underpin trader consensus that full-year contraction remains unlikely. Key upcoming catalysts include the December FOMC meeting and further inflation and employment releases, though tail risks such as sharper geopolitical shocks or persistent supply-driven inflation could still pressure the outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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