Jess Wilson, the Liberal leader and opposition head since November 2025, commands the strongest position ahead of Victoria’s November 28 state election due to consistent Coalition leads in recent polling. Multiple surveys show the Liberal-National Coalition ahead of Labor 55-45 on a two-party preferred basis, with Wilson preferred as premier over Ben Carroll by double-digit margins. Carroll became premier in late July after Jacinta Allan resigned amid caucus pressure over weak approval ratings, stagnant primary support in the mid-20s, and voter fatigue after more than a decade in office. Wilson has maintained momentum through policy announcements on crime and bail reform, housing supply, and a 10-year economic plan, while One Nation’s rise fragments the primary vote without disrupting the Coalition’s projected path to government under current preference flows. Traders price these dynamics into Wilson’s elevated odds relative to other listed contenders.