Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Oregon Senate Election: Turnout
Politics·Midterm MOV

Oregon Senate Election: Turnout

icon for Oregon Senate Election: Turnout
Politics·Midterm MOV

Oregon Senate Election: Turnout

1.5M-1.6M 22.1%

1.7M-1.8M 20%

2.1M-2.2M 14%

<1.5M 11.5%

Polymarket
NEW

1.5M-1.6M 22.1%

1.7M-1.8M 20%

2.1M-2.2M 14%

<1.5M 11.5%

Polymarket
NEW

<1.5M

$153 Vol.

18%

1.5M-1.6M

$102 Vol.

22%

1.6M-1.7M

$70 Vol.

6%

1.7M-1.8M

$138 Vol.

20%

1.8M-1.9M

$57 Vol.

8%

1.9M-2M

$60 Vol.

8%

2M-2.1M

$185 Vol.

7%

2.1M-2.2M

$53 Vol.

14%

2.2M+

$91 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate contest features Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith in a race rated safe Democratic by multiple forecasters.** Trader odds remain tightly clustered across the 1.5M–1.9M vote range because the seat itself generates limited independent excitement, yet the concurrent competitive gubernatorial rematch between Gov. Tina Kotek and Christine Drazan is expected to drive broader participation. Record May primary turnout above 41%—fueled by a high-profile gas-tax ballot measure—signals elevated baseline engagement, particularly among unaffiliated and Republican voters, while Oregon’s universal mail-in system and ongoing Secretary of State outreach support steady but not exceptional general-election participation. Recent emphasis on drop-box usage to address postal delays and October campaign events, including the Oct. 1 gubernatorial debate, represent near-term catalysts that could shift volume. Any late surge in Republican mobilization or Democratic base turnout tied to the top-of-ticket contest would most directly influence whether totals settle in the lower or middle bins currently priced near parity.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$909
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Oregon's 2026 U.S. Senate contest features Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley facing Republican state Sen. David Brock Smith in a race rated safe Democratic by multiple forecasters.** Trader odds remain tightly clustered across the 1.5M–1.9M vote range because the seat itself generates limited independent excitement, yet the concurrent competitive gubernatorial rematch between Gov. Tina Kotek and Christine Drazan is expected to drive broader participation. Record May primary turnout above 41%—fueled by a high-profile gas-tax ballot measure—signals elevated baseline engagement, particularly among unaffiliated and Republican voters, while Oregon’s universal mail-in system and ongoing Secretary of State outreach support steady but not exceptional general-election participation. Recent emphasis on drop-box usage to address postal delays and October campaign events, including the Oct. 1 gubernatorial debate, represent near-term catalysts that could shift volume. Any late surge in Republican mobilization or Democratic base turnout tied to the top-of-ticket contest would most directly influence whether totals settle in the lower or middle bins currently priced near parity.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oregon, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$909
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 600,000 and 640,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Idaho be between 600,000 and 640,000?

38%
icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,500,000 and 4,650,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,500,000 and 4,650,000?

41%
icon for Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000?

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Oklahoma be between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000?

46%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Oregon Senate Election: Turnout" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.5M-1.6M" at 22%, followed by "1.7M-1.8M" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Oregon Senate Election: Turnout" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Oregon Senate Election: Turnout," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oregon Senate Election: Turnout" is "1.5M-1.6M" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.7M-1.8M" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oregon Senate Election: Turnout" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.