The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record of 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013, has stood through an era of expanded schedules and pass-friendly rules, with only three quarterbacks ever reaching 50. Entering 2026, implied probabilities sit near even because elite passers such as Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Matthew Stafford operate in high-volume offenses with strong receiving weapons, yet season-long projections cluster in the mid-20s to low-30s touchdowns. Recent form shows Stafford’s 46 in 2025 as the closest approach, while injuries, defensive adjustments, and run-heavy schemes have capped even the most efficient passers. A confluence of health, scheme continuity, and weak opposing secondaries could push one candidate toward the mark, but historical rarity and variance in outcomes keep the market balanced between confirmation of sustained offensive evolution and regression to established norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated50% chance
NEW
NEW
Jan 12, 2027
50% chance
NEW
NEW
Jan 12, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 55 passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record is 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 55 passing touchdowns for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 55 passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record of 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013, has stood through an era of expanded schedules and pass-friendly rules, with only three quarterbacks ever reaching 50. Entering 2026, implied probabilities sit near even because elite passers such as Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Matthew Stafford operate in high-volume offenses with strong receiving weapons, yet season-long projections cluster in the mid-20s to low-30s touchdowns. Recent form shows Stafford’s 46 in 2025 as the closest approach, while injuries, defensive adjustments, and run-heavy schemes have capped even the most efficient passers. A confluence of health, scheme continuity, and weak opposing secondaries could push one candidate toward the mark, but historical rarity and variance in outcomes keep the market balanced between confirmation of sustained offensive evolution and regression to established norms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 55 passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record is 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 55 passing touchdowns for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 55 passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record is 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 55 passing touchdowns for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 55 passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 55 passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record is 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 55 passing touchdowns for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 55 passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record of 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013, has stood through an era of expanded schedules and pass-friendly rules, with only three quarterbacks ever reaching 50. Entering 2026, implied probabilities sit near even because elite passers such as Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Matthew Stafford operate in high-volume offenses with strong receiving weapons, yet season-long projections cluster in the mid-20s to low-30s touchdowns. Recent form shows Stafford’s 46 in 2025 as the closest approach, while injuries, defensive adjustments, and run-heavy schemes have capped even the most efficient passers. A confluence of health, scheme continuity, and weak opposing secondaries could push one candidate toward the mark, but historical rarity and variance in outcomes keep the market balanced between confirmation of sustained offensive evolution and regression to established norms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player records more than 55 passing touchdowns during the 2026-27 NFL regular season, thereby breaking the NFL single-season passing touchdowns record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record is 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 55 passing touchdowns for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 55 passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record is 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013. Matching the record exactly will not be sufficient; a player must exceed 55 passing touchdowns for this market to resolve to "Yes". Only regular season games count. Playoff games, including Wild Card, Divisional, Conference Championship, and Pro Football Championship games, do not count. A player's total is the total he records across all of his 2026-27 NFL regular season games, including games played for more than one team.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed games.
If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined whether any player exceeded 55 passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "50-50".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The NFL single-season passing touchdowns record of 55, set by Peyton Manning in 2013, has stood through an era of expanded schedules and pass-friendly rules, with only three quarterbacks ever reaching 50. Entering 2026, implied probabilities sit near even because elite passers such as Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, and Matthew Stafford operate in high-volume offenses with strong receiving weapons, yet season-long projections cluster in the mid-20s to low-30s touchdowns. Recent form shows Stafford’s 46 in 2025 as the closest approach, while injuries, defensive adjustments, and run-heavy schemes have capped even the most efficient passers. A confluence of health, scheme continuity, and weak opposing secondaries could push one candidate toward the mark, but historical rarity and variance in outcomes keep the market balanced between confirmation of sustained offensive evolution and regression to established norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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