Recent U.S. trade data, including a $73.3 billion goods-and-services deficit in June 2026 and a widened $118.8 billion goods shortfall in July, underpin trader positioning around an $800–900 billion annual outcome for the full year. The 12-month total through June reached $742.65 billion, with first-half 2026 flows at $371.2 billion, while services surpluses near $29 billion monthly continue to offset larger goods imbalances. Tariff adjustments and front-loaded imports earlier in the cycle have given way to normalization, though July’s surge in capital-goods imports tied to AI investment has added volatility. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory alongside ongoing policy uncertainty and upcoming monthly releases that could refine the 2026 path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,044 Vol.
$24,044 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
8%
700–800B
27%
800–900B
44%
900B–1T
12%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
5%
$24,044 Vol.
$24,044 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,854 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
8%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
27%
800–900B
$1,529 Vol.
44%
900B–1T
$1,407 Vol.
12%
1T–1.1T
$1,468 Vol.
5%
1.1T+
$1,119 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data, including a $73.3 billion goods-and-services deficit in June 2026 and a widened $118.8 billion goods shortfall in July, underpin trader positioning around an $800–900 billion annual outcome for the full year. The 12-month total through June reached $742.65 billion, with first-half 2026 flows at $371.2 billion, while services surpluses near $29 billion monthly continue to offset larger goods imbalances. Tariff adjustments and front-loaded imports earlier in the cycle have given way to normalization, though July’s surge in capital-goods imports tied to AI investment has added volatility. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory alongside ongoing policy uncertainty and upcoming monthly releases that could refine the 2026 path.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,044End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data, including a $73.3 billion goods-and-services deficit in June 2026 and a widened $118.8 billion goods shortfall in July, underpin trader positioning around an $800–900 billion annual outcome for the full year. The 12-month total through June reached $742.65 billion, with first-half 2026 flows at $371.2 billion, while services surpluses near $29 billion monthly continue to offset larger goods imbalances. Tariff adjustments and front-loaded imports earlier in the cycle have given way to normalization, though July’s surge in capital-goods imports tied to AI investment has added volatility. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory alongside ongoing policy uncertainty and upcoming monthly releases that could refine the 2026 path.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,044End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data, including a $73.3 billion goods-and-services deficit in June 2026 and a widened $118.8 billion goods shortfall in July, underpin trader positioning around an $800–900 billion annual outcome for the full year. The 12-month total through June reached $742.65 billion, with first-half 2026 flows at $371.2 billion, while services surpluses near $29 billion monthly continue to offset larger goods imbalances. Tariff adjustments and front-loaded imports earlier in the cycle have given way to normalization, though July’s surge in capital-goods imports tied to AI investment has added volatility. Market-implied odds reflect this trajectory alongside ongoing policy uncertainty and upcoming monthly releases that could refine the 2026 path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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