Traders assign Republicans a 62% implied probability of winning young men in the 2026 midterms, reflecting the party's continued edge among this group following 2024 gains driven by economic pressures such as inflation and housing costs alongside cultural and gender-gap dynamics. Polling from Pew, Yale, and Third Way shows Democrats leading young voters overall on the generic congressional ballot by wide margins in mid-2026 surveys, yet lower midterm turnout among lower-propensity young men who leaned Republican in the prior cycle sustains the market pricing. Recent drops in presidential approval among younger cohorts have not fully reversed these patterns, with upcoming economic data and campaign outreach on pocketbook issues likely to influence final positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
Republicans
63%
Democrats
29%
NEW
NEW
Nov 6, 2026
Republicans
$96 Vol.
63%
Democrats
$427 Vol.
29%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of men in the age range of 18-24 in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for men in the 18-24 age range, this market will resolve based on the narrowest age range that begins with the youngest age for which data is available.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by cbsnews.com or, should cbsnews.com also not provide applicable polling, foxnews.com.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Traders assign Republicans a 62% implied probability of winning young men in the 2026 midterms, reflecting the party's continued edge among this group following 2024 gains driven by economic pressures such as inflation and housing costs alongside cultural and gender-gap dynamics. Polling from Pew, Yale, and Third Way shows Democrats leading young voters overall on the generic congressional ballot by wide margins in mid-2026 surveys, yet lower midterm turnout among lower-propensity young men who leaned Republican in the prior cycle sustains the market pricing. Recent drops in presidential approval among younger cohorts have not fully reversed these patterns, with upcoming economic data and campaign outreach on pocketbook issues likely to influence final positioning.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of men in the age range of 18-24 in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for men in the 18-24 age range, this market will resolve based on the narrowest age range that begins with the youngest age for which data is available.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by cbsnews.com or, should cbsnews.com also not provide applicable polling, foxnews.com.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of men in the age range of 18-24 in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for men in the 18-24 age range, this market will resolve based on the narrowest age range that begins with the youngest age for which data is available.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by cbsnews.com or, should cbsnews.com also not provide applicable polling, foxnews.com.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volume
$523End Date
Nov 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of men in the age range of 18-24 in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for men in the 18-24 age range, this market will resolve based on the narrowest age range that begins with the youngest age for which data is available.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by cbsnews.com or, should cbsnews.com also not provide applicable polling, foxnews.com.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Traders assign Republicans a 62% implied probability of winning young men in the 2026 midterms, reflecting the party's continued edge among this group following 2024 gains driven by economic pressures such as inflation and housing costs alongside cultural and gender-gap dynamics. Polling from Pew, Yale, and Third Way shows Democrats leading young voters overall on the generic congressional ballot by wide margins in mid-2026 surveys, yet lower midterm turnout among lower-propensity young men who leaned Republican in the prior cycle sustains the market pricing. Recent drops in presidential approval among younger cohorts have not fully reversed these patterns, with upcoming economic data and campaign outreach on pocketbook issues likely to influence final positioning.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of men in the age range of 18-24 in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for men in the 18-24 age range, this market will resolve based on the narrowest age range that begins with the youngest age for which data is available.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by cbsnews.com or, should cbsnews.com also not provide applicable polling, foxnews.com.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of men in the age range of 18-24 in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
In the event that CNN does not provide numbers for men in the 18-24 age range, this market will resolve based on the narrowest age range that begins with the youngest age for which data is available.
In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.
In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by cbsnews.com or, should cbsnews.com also not provide applicable polling, foxnews.com.
If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$523End Date
Nov 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Republicans a 62% implied probability of winning young men in the 2026 midterms, reflecting the party's continued edge among this group following 2024 gains driven by economic pressures such as inflation and housing costs alongside cultural and gender-gap dynamics. Polling from Pew, Yale, and Third Way shows Democrats leading young voters overall on the generic congressional ballot by wide margins in mid-2026 surveys, yet lower midterm turnout among lower-propensity young men who leaned Republican in the prior cycle sustains the market pricing. Recent drops in presidential approval among younger cohorts have not fully reversed these patterns, with upcoming economic data and campaign outreach on pocketbook issues likely to influence final positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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