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Will an American player win the 2026 US Open?

icon for Will an American player win the 2026 US Open?

Will an American player win the 2026 US Open?

<1% chance
Polymarket

$4,195 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$4,195 Vol.

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a player representing the United States of America wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament or the 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A champion in either singles draw is sufficient for this market to resolve to "Yes"; both draws do not need to be won by an American player. Doubles, mixed doubles, wheelchair, and junior events do not count toward this market. A player's nationality will be determined by the country listed for that player in the official 2026 U.S. Open draws and results. A player listed as representing the United States of America qualifies regardless of birthplace or other citizenships held. If neither the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament nor the 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles Tournament has a declared champion by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No American is favored to claim either 2026 US Open singles title.** In the men’s final, top seed Alexander Zverev faces Ben Shelton after dispatching Karen Khachanov in straight sets; Zverev leads the head-to-head 5-0 and has won four straight matches without dropping a set. Shelton reached his first major final by upsetting Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals and defeating Frances Tiafoe in the all-American semifinal, but he remains the underdog on hard courts against Zverev’s experience and serve. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina contest the final after eliminating the last American contenders, including Coco Gauff in the semifinals. Multiple seeded Americans advanced deep in both draws, yet the finals feature non-Americans holding the stronger recent form, head-to-head edges, and implied probabilities near 57% for the favorites. These outcomes align with the market’s 90.6% pricing on no American winner.

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a player representing the United States of America wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament or the 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A champion in either singles draw is sufficient for this market to resolve to "Yes"; both draws do not need to be won by an American player. Doubles, mixed doubles, wheelchair, and junior events do not count toward this market.

A player's nationality will be determined by the country listed for that player in the official 2026 U.S. Open draws and results. A player listed as representing the United States of America qualifies regardless of birthplace or other citizenships held.

If neither the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament nor the 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles Tournament has a declared champion by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a player representing the United States of America wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament or the 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A champion in either singles draw is sufficient for this market to resolve to "Yes"; both draws do not need to be won by an American player. Doubles, mixed doubles, wheelchair, and junior events do not count toward this market. A player's nationality will be determined by the country listed for that player in the official 2026 U.S. Open draws and results. A player listed as representing the United States of America qualifies regardless of birthplace or other citizenships held. If neither the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament nor the 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles Tournament has a declared champion by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,195
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 4:07 PM ET

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a player representing the United States of America wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament or the 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A champion in either singles draw is sufficient for this market to resolve to "Yes"; both draws do not need to be won by an American player. Doubles, mixed doubles, wheelchair, and junior events do not count toward this market. A player's nationality will be determined by the country listed for that player in the official 2026 U.S. Open draws and results. A player listed as representing the United States of America qualifies regardless of birthplace or other citizenships held. If neither the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament nor the 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles Tournament has a declared champion by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**No American is favored to claim either 2026 US Open singles title.** In the men’s final, top seed Alexander Zverev faces Ben Shelton after dispatching Karen Khachanov in straight sets; Zverev leads the head-to-head 5-0 and has won four straight matches without dropping a set. Shelton reached his first major final by upsetting Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals and defeating Frances Tiafoe in the all-American semifinal, but he remains the underdog on hard courts against Zverev’s experience and serve. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina contest the final after eliminating the last American contenders, including Coco Gauff in the semifinals. Multiple seeded Americans advanced deep in both draws, yet the finals feature non-Americans holding the stronger recent form, head-to-head edges, and implied probabilities near 57% for the favorites. These outcomes align with the market’s 90.6% pricing on no American winner.

The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a player representing the United States of America wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament or the 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A champion in either singles draw is sufficient for this market to resolve to "Yes"; both draws do not need to be won by an American player. Doubles, mixed doubles, wheelchair, and junior events do not count toward this market.

A player's nationality will be determined by the country listed for that player in the official 2026 U.S. Open draws and results. A player listed as representing the United States of America qualifies regardless of birthplace or other citizenships held.

If neither the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament nor the 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles Tournament has a declared champion by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a player representing the United States of America wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament or the 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A champion in either singles draw is sufficient for this market to resolve to "Yes"; both draws do not need to be won by an American player. Doubles, mixed doubles, wheelchair, and junior events do not count toward this market. A player's nationality will be determined by the country listed for that player in the official 2026 U.S. Open draws and results. A player listed as representing the United States of America qualifies regardless of birthplace or other citizenships held. If neither the 2026 U.S. Open Men's Singles Tournament nor the 2026 U.S. Open Women's Singles Tournament has a declared champion by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Sep 13, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 4:07 PM ET

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will an American player win the 2026 US Open?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will an American player win the 2026 US Open?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 10, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will an American player win the 2026 US Open?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will an American player win the 2026 US Open?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will an American player win the 2026 US Open?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.