Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by active preparations for a mid-October roadshow and potential November listing, has driven the 96.5% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent reports highlight Anthropic finalizing a large credit facility and targeting up to a $2 trillion valuation, while OpenAI’s June 8 filing has been followed by internal shifts toward a 2027 debut to achieve a $1 trillion target amid concerns over market volatility and infrastructure spending. Trader consensus reflects these timelines, though delays in regulatory review, shifts in AI sector sentiment, or unexpected acceleration by OpenAI remain plausible variables that could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
97% chance
$337,260 Vol.
$337,260 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
Anthropic
97% chance
$337,260 Vol.
$337,260 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by active preparations for a mid-October roadshow and potential November listing, has driven the 96.5% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent reports highlight Anthropic finalizing a large credit facility and targeting up to a $2 trillion valuation, while OpenAI’s June 8 filing has been followed by internal shifts toward a 2027 debut to achieve a $1 trillion target amid concerns over market volatility and infrastructure spending. Trader consensus reflects these timelines, though delays in regulatory review, shifts in AI sector sentiment, or unexpected acceleration by OpenAI remain plausible variables that could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$337,260End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by active preparations for a mid-October roadshow and potential November listing, has driven the 96.5% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent reports highlight Anthropic finalizing a large credit facility and targeting up to a $2 trillion valuation, while OpenAI’s June 8 filing has been followed by internal shifts toward a 2027 debut to achieve a $1 trillion target amid concerns over market volatility and infrastructure spending. Trader consensus reflects these timelines, though delays in regulatory review, shifts in AI sector sentiment, or unexpected acceleration by OpenAI remain plausible variables that could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$337,260End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, followed by active preparations for a mid-October roadshow and potential November listing, has driven the 96.5% market-implied probability that it will reach public markets ahead of OpenAI. Recent reports highlight Anthropic finalizing a large credit facility and targeting up to a $2 trillion valuation, while OpenAI’s June 8 filing has been followed by internal shifts toward a 2027 debut to achieve a $1 trillion target amid concerns over market volatility and infrastructure spending. Trader consensus reflects these timelines, though delays in regulatory review, shifts in AI sector sentiment, or unexpected acceleration by OpenAI remain plausible variables that could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions