Anthropic’s accelerated IPO timeline drives the 95.3% market-implied probability it lists before OpenAI. The company confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, released a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation, and now plans to unveil its public prospectus after Labor Day with a targeted Nasdaq debut in late September or early October. In contrast, OpenAI’s June 8 confidential filing has shifted toward a 2027 window as leadership pursues a $1 trillion-plus valuation amid post-SpaceX market volatility, high compute commitments, and internal readiness concerns. Traders view Anthropic’s faster SEC clock, stronger recent revenue trajectory with its Claude large language model, and committed underwriters as decisive advantages. Remaining risks include last-minute regulatory delays or macroeconomic shocks that could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
95% chance
$326,092 Vol.
$326,092 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
Anthropic
95% chance
$326,092 Vol.
$326,092 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s accelerated IPO timeline drives the 95.3% market-implied probability it lists before OpenAI. The company confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, released a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation, and now plans to unveil its public prospectus after Labor Day with a targeted Nasdaq debut in late September or early October. In contrast, OpenAI’s June 8 confidential filing has shifted toward a 2027 window as leadership pursues a $1 trillion-plus valuation amid post-SpaceX market volatility, high compute commitments, and internal readiness concerns. Traders view Anthropic’s faster SEC clock, stronger recent revenue trajectory with its Claude large language model, and committed underwriters as decisive advantages. Remaining risks include last-minute regulatory delays or macroeconomic shocks that could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$326,092End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s accelerated IPO timeline drives the 95.3% market-implied probability it lists before OpenAI. The company confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, released a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation, and now plans to unveil its public prospectus after Labor Day with a targeted Nasdaq debut in late September or early October. In contrast, OpenAI’s June 8 confidential filing has shifted toward a 2027 window as leadership pursues a $1 trillion-plus valuation amid post-SpaceX market volatility, high compute commitments, and internal readiness concerns. Traders view Anthropic’s faster SEC clock, stronger recent revenue trajectory with its Claude large language model, and committed underwriters as decisive advantages. Remaining risks include last-minute regulatory delays or macroeconomic shocks that could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$326,092End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s accelerated IPO timeline drives the 95.3% market-implied probability it lists before OpenAI. The company confidentially filed its S-1 with the SEC on June 1, 2026, released a $65 billion funding round at a $965 billion valuation, and now plans to unveil its public prospectus after Labor Day with a targeted Nasdaq debut in late September or early October. In contrast, OpenAI’s June 8 confidential filing has shifted toward a 2027 window as leadership pursues a $1 trillion-plus valuation amid post-SpaceX market volatility, high compute commitments, and internal readiness concerns. Traders view Anthropic’s faster SEC clock, stronger recent revenue trajectory with its Claude large language model, and committed underwriters as decisive advantages. Remaining risks include last-minute regulatory delays or macroeconomic shocks that could still alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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