**Canada’s population has declined for multiple consecutive quarters amid federal policy shifts to curb temporary resident inflows.** Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimates show a 0.2% drop to 41.47 million by January 1, 2026—the first annual decline since Confederation—followed by another 0.1% quarterly fall to 41.42 million by April 1, driven primarily by a sharp reduction in non-permanent residents (down over 117,000 in Q1 alone) and lower permanent immigration. The government’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually while capping temporary resident arrivals at 385,000 for 2026 (down sharply from prior years) to bring the temporary share below 5% of the population. International student numbers have already fallen roughly one-third since 2024, with new arrivals in early 2026 down 82% year-over-year, reflecting study-permit caps, tightened work-permit rules, and processing changes. Natural increase has also turned negative in recent quarters as deaths outpace births. These sustained outflows and reduced inflows—concentrated in Ontario and British Columbia—have produced three straight quarters of population contraction through mid-2026. Preliminary Q2 figures are due for release in September, but the policy framework and ongoing trends in non-permanent resident departures continue to shape trader assessments of a net annual decline.