The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent polling lead heading into the October 5 election, with recent surveys from Pallas Data, Léger, and others showing roughly 29% support compared to 24% for the CAQ and 20-22% for the PLQ. This positioning stems from sustained francophone backing for leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the first-past-the-post system's tendency to reward concentrated regional strength, as reflected in seat projections from models like 338Canada that assign the PQ an 88% chance of securing the most seats. The CAQ under new Premier Christine Fréchette has stabilized in second after earlier gains but trails in key suburban and rural ridings, while Liberal support has eroded further among francophones. Stable polling trends over the past month, combined with campaign focus on cost of living, housing, and sovereignty timing, underpin trader consensus on the current probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection générale québécoise
Vainqueur de l'élection générale québécoise
PQ 74%
CAQ 24%
PLQ 2.7%
PCQ <1%
$890,624 Vol.
$890,624 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
PQ
74%
CAQ
24%
PLQ
3%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 74%
CAQ 24%
PLQ 2.7%
PCQ <1%
$890,624 Vol.
$890,624 Vol.
4 oct. 2026
PQ
$119,208 Vol.
74%
CAQ
$136,971 Vol.
24%
PLQ
$123,789 Vol.
3%
PCQ
$246,611 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
QS
$106,523 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent polling lead heading into the October 5 election, with recent surveys from Pallas Data, Léger, and others showing roughly 29% support compared to 24% for the CAQ and 20-22% for the PLQ. This positioning stems from sustained francophone backing for leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the first-past-the-post system's tendency to reward concentrated regional strength, as reflected in seat projections from models like 338Canada that assign the PQ an 88% chance of securing the most seats. The CAQ under new Premier Christine Fréchette has stabilized in second after earlier gains but trails in key suburban and rural ridings, while Liberal support has eroded further among francophones. Stable polling trends over the past month, combined with campaign focus on cost of living, housing, and sovereignty timing, underpin trader consensus on the current probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Marché ouvert : Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$890,624Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent polling lead heading into the October 5 election, with recent surveys from Pallas Data, Léger, and others showing roughly 29% support compared to 24% for the CAQ and 20-22% for the PLQ. This positioning stems from sustained francophone backing for leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the first-past-the-post system's tendency to reward concentrated regional strength, as reflected in seat projections from models like 338Canada that assign the PQ an 88% chance of securing the most seats. The CAQ under new Premier Christine Fréchette has stabilized in second after earlier gains but trails in key suburban and rural ridings, while Liberal support has eroded further among francophones. Stable polling trends over the past month, combined with campaign focus on cost of living, housing, and sovereignty timing, underpin trader consensus on the current probabilities.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$890,624Date de fin
5 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...The Parti Québécois maintains a consistent polling lead heading into the October 5 election, with recent surveys from Pallas Data, Léger, and others showing roughly 29% support compared to 24% for the CAQ and 20-22% for the PLQ. This positioning stems from sustained francophone backing for leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and the first-past-the-post system's tendency to reward concentrated regional strength, as reflected in seat projections from models like 338Canada that assign the PQ an 88% chance of securing the most seats. The CAQ under new Premier Christine Fréchette has stabilized in second after earlier gains but trails in key suburban and rural ridings, while Liberal support has eroded further among francophones. Stable polling trends over the past month, combined with campaign focus on cost of living, housing, and sovereignty timing, underpin trader consensus on the current probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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