ECB policymakers have maintained a hawkish stance amid elevated euro area inflation driven by Middle East energy shocks, with the deposit facility rate held at 2.25% after the June 2026 hike and markets pricing further tightening into September. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging near or above 2.5% for 2026 before easing toward the 2% target, while core measures and labor market resilience support the view that monetary policy remains only mildly restrictive. This environment leaves little room for rate cuts through year-end, as the Governing Council emphasizes data-dependent decisions without pre-committing to easing. A swift de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply lowers energy prices or an unexpected growth slump could reopen the door to cuts, though current futures imply such outcomes remain low-probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
7% chance
$31,829 Vol.
$31,829 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
7% chance
$31,829 Vol.
$31,829 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.ECB policymakers have maintained a hawkish stance amid elevated euro area inflation driven by Middle East energy shocks, with the deposit facility rate held at 2.25% after the June 2026 hike and markets pricing further tightening into September. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging near or above 2.5% for 2026 before easing toward the 2% target, while core measures and labor market resilience support the view that monetary policy remains only mildly restrictive. This environment leaves little room for rate cuts through year-end, as the Governing Council emphasizes data-dependent decisions without pre-committing to easing. A swift de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply lowers energy prices or an unexpected growth slump could reopen the door to cuts, though current futures imply such outcomes remain low-probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,829Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.ECB policymakers have maintained a hawkish stance amid elevated euro area inflation driven by Middle East energy shocks, with the deposit facility rate held at 2.25% after the June 2026 hike and markets pricing further tightening into September. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging near or above 2.5% for 2026 before easing toward the 2% target, while core measures and labor market resilience support the view that monetary policy remains only mildly restrictive. This environment leaves little room for rate cuts through year-end, as the Governing Council emphasizes data-dependent decisions without pre-committing to easing. A swift de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply lowers energy prices or an unexpected growth slump could reopen the door to cuts, though current futures imply such outcomes remain low-probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,829Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...ECB policymakers have maintained a hawkish stance amid elevated euro area inflation driven by Middle East energy shocks, with the deposit facility rate held at 2.25% after the June 2026 hike and markets pricing further tightening into September. Staff projections show headline inflation averaging near or above 2.5% for 2026 before easing toward the 2% target, while core measures and labor market resilience support the view that monetary policy remains only mildly restrictive. This environment leaves little room for rate cuts through year-end, as the Governing Council emphasizes data-dependent decisions without pre-committing to easing. A swift de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that sharply lowers energy prices or an unexpected growth slump could reopen the door to cuts, though current futures imply such outcomes remain low-probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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