**Trader consensus strongly favors exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide during August 24–30, 2026, with market-implied odds exceeding 99%.** This positioning reflects official seismological data from global networks, primarily USGS and complementary catalogs, showing a moderate total consistent with background rates in tectonically active zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire, Indonesian archipelago, and mid-ocean ridges. Daily counts featured isolated M6.0 events (e.g., Banda Sea and Somalia regions) alongside several M5.5–5.8 shocks, without clustering into higher totals or dropping below typical weekly baselines of roughly 5–10 events. Model consensus from historical USGS archives supports this level of activity under current tectonic conditions, with no major aftershock sequences or swarm activity elevating the count. Resolution hinges on verified final catalog entries; revisions to borderline events or undetected oceanic quakes remain the primary low-probability scenarios that could alter the outcome, though comprehensive station coverage makes large adjustments improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus dans le monde du 24 au 30 août ?
Combien de séismes de 5,5 ou plus dans le monde du 24 au 30 août ?
7 99.8%
11 2.2%
8 <1%
9 <1%
$38,897 Vol.
$38,897 Vol.
30 août 2026
≤6
<1%
7
100%
8
<1%
9
<1%
10
<1%
11
2%
12
<1%
13
<1%
plus de 13
<1%
7 99.8%
11 2.2%
8 <1%
9 <1%
$38,897 Vol.
$38,897 Vol.
30 août 2026
≤6
$15,663 Vol.
<1%
7
$4,175 Vol.
100%
8
$3,809 Vol.
<1%
9
$3,444 Vol.
<1%
10
$2,942 Vol.
<1%
11
$1,910 Vol.
2%
12
$2,022 Vol.
<1%
13
$1,753 Vol.
<1%
plus de 13
$3,179 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus strongly favors exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide during August 24–30, 2026, with market-implied odds exceeding 99%.** This positioning reflects official seismological data from global networks, primarily USGS and complementary catalogs, showing a moderate total consistent with background rates in tectonically active zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire, Indonesian archipelago, and mid-ocean ridges. Daily counts featured isolated M6.0 events (e.g., Banda Sea and Somalia regions) alongside several M5.5–5.8 shocks, without clustering into higher totals or dropping below typical weekly baselines of roughly 5–10 events.
Model consensus from historical USGS archives supports this level of activity under current tectonic conditions, with no major aftershock sequences or swarm activity elevating the count. Resolution hinges on verified final catalog entries; revisions to borderline events or undetected oceanic quakes remain the primary low-probability scenarios that could alter the outcome, though comprehensive station coverage makes large adjustments improbable.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$38,897Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus strongly favors exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide during August 24–30, 2026, with market-implied odds exceeding 99%.** This positioning reflects official seismological data from global networks, primarily USGS and complementary catalogs, showing a moderate total consistent with background rates in tectonically active zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire, Indonesian archipelago, and mid-ocean ridges. Daily counts featured isolated M6.0 events (e.g., Banda Sea and Somalia regions) alongside several M5.5–5.8 shocks, without clustering into higher totals or dropping below typical weekly baselines of roughly 5–10 events.
Model consensus from historical USGS archives supports this level of activity under current tectonic conditions, with no major aftershock sequences or swarm activity elevating the count. Resolution hinges on verified final catalog entries; revisions to borderline events or undetected oceanic quakes remain the primary low-probability scenarios that could alter the outcome, though comprehensive station coverage makes large adjustments improbable.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$38,897Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 21, 2026, 10:48 AM ETSource de résolution
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Résolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater worldwide during August 24–30, 2026, with market-implied odds exceeding 99%.** This positioning reflects official seismological data from global networks, primarily USGS and complementary catalogs, showing a moderate total consistent with background rates in tectonically active zones such as the Pacific Ring of Fire, Indonesian archipelago, and mid-ocean ridges. Daily counts featured isolated M6.0 events (e.g., Banda Sea and Somalia regions) alongside several M5.5–5.8 shocks, without clustering into higher totals or dropping below typical weekly baselines of roughly 5–10 events. Model consensus from historical USGS archives supports this level of activity under current tectonic conditions, with no major aftershock sequences or swarm activity elevating the count. Resolution hinges on verified final catalog entries; revisions to borderline events or undetected oceanic quakes remain the primary low-probability scenarios that could alter the outcome, though comprehensive station coverage makes large adjustments improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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