US-Iran negotiations following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding centered on down-blending Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile under IAEA supervision as a minimum step, rather than outright surrender or removal from the country. Iran has consistently rejected proposals to transfer material abroad while reaffirming its non-weapons pledge and right to enrichment. IAEA inspectors remain barred from key damaged sites since the 2025 strikes, leaving the size, location, and status of the estimated 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium unverifiable. The IAEA board's September 2026 referral of Iran's noncompliance to the UN Security Council, alongside reports of ongoing site activity and material outside safeguards, underscores persistent verification gaps that continue to shape diplomatic timelines and trader assessments of any binding agreement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMarket prices drop sharply as Iran shows no public uranium surrender agreement
December 31 plunges to 20%18%
By late June, despite earlier reports, no public agreement by Iran to surrender enriched uranium had been confirmed, leading to a collapse in market prices for all resolution dates, reflecting widespread skepticism about a deal before deadlines.
Iran agrees to transfer part of enriched uranium stockpile, likely to China
December 31 dips to 21%1%
On June 24, reports emerged that Iran agreed to transfer part of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country, possibly China, as part of ongoing negotiations with the US. This partial concession was seen as a potential step toward resolving disputes but did not fully restore market confidence.




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