Traders assign a 96% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 because no large-scale military mobilization, amphibious exercises, or diplomatic rupture has materialized in recent months to suggest an imminent operation. The status quo persists amid continued economic interdependence, U.S. security commitments, and Beijing’s focus on domestic priorities and incremental gray-zone pressure rather than full-scale conflict. Historical patterns of deterrence and the narrow remaining timeline further anchor consensus around non-invasion. Even at these elevated odds, markets remain sensitive to sudden triggers such as an unanticipated cross-strait incident, abrupt shifts in U.S. policy signals, or verified intelligence of accelerated Chinese preparations that could compress decision timelines before year-end.