Greg Murphy holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district’s R+6 partisan voter index and 14-point Trump margin in 2024 provide a durable structural edge, reinforced by Murphy’s prior double-digit victories and substantial campaign resources. Redistricting completed in late 2025 shifted some coastal counties out and added more inland areas, modestly increasing the Black voter share and Democratic competitiveness without altering the overall Republican tilt. Raymond Smith Jr., the Democratic nominee after winning his March 2026 primary, brings veteran and state legislative experience plus some national party support, yet faces the challenge of overcoming the district’s baseline lean. A single summer poll showed a narrower gap, but broader indicators and historical patterns sustain trader consensus around Murphy’s advantage heading into the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNC-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NC-03 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$19,249 Vol.
$19,249 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Greg Murphy (R)
86%
Raymond Smith Jr. (D)
13%
$19,249 Vol.
$19,249 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Greg Murphy (R)
$14,276 Vol.
86%
Raymond Smith Jr. (D)
$4,972 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Murphy holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district’s R+6 partisan voter index and 14-point Trump margin in 2024 provide a durable structural edge, reinforced by Murphy’s prior double-digit victories and substantial campaign resources. Redistricting completed in late 2025 shifted some coastal counties out and added more inland areas, modestly increasing the Black voter share and Democratic competitiveness without altering the overall Republican tilt. Raymond Smith Jr., the Democratic nominee after winning his March 2026 primary, brings veteran and state legislative experience plus some national party support, yet faces the challenge of overcoming the district’s baseline lean. A single summer poll showed a narrower gap, but broader indicators and historical patterns sustain trader consensus around Murphy’s advantage heading into the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$19,249Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Greg Murphy holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district’s R+6 partisan voter index and 14-point Trump margin in 2024 provide a durable structural edge, reinforced by Murphy’s prior double-digit victories and substantial campaign resources. Redistricting completed in late 2025 shifted some coastal counties out and added more inland areas, modestly increasing the Black voter share and Democratic competitiveness without altering the overall Republican tilt. Raymond Smith Jr., the Democratic nominee after winning his March 2026 primary, brings veteran and state legislative experience plus some national party support, yet faces the challenge of overcoming the district’s baseline lean. A single summer poll showed a narrower gap, but broader indicators and historical patterns sustain trader consensus around Murphy’s advantage heading into the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,249Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Greg Murphy holds a strong position as the Republican incumbent in North Carolina’s 3rd congressional district, a seat rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The district’s R+6 partisan voter index and 14-point Trump margin in 2024 provide a durable structural edge, reinforced by Murphy’s prior double-digit victories and substantial campaign resources. Redistricting completed in late 2025 shifted some coastal counties out and added more inland areas, modestly increasing the Black voter share and Democratic competitiveness without altering the overall Republican tilt. Raymond Smith Jr., the Democratic nominee after winning his March 2026 primary, brings veteran and state legislative experience plus some national party support, yet faces the challenge of overcoming the district’s baseline lean. A single summer poll showed a narrower gap, but broader indicators and historical patterns sustain trader consensus around Murphy’s advantage heading into the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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