Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning to address response-length penalties and task persistence has kept release timing fluid, even as xAI faces competitive pressure from expected September updates at OpenAI and Meta. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX data, remains unreleased as of mid-September despite repeated earlier targets that slipped from late August into the first half of September. Recent Musk posts positioning Grok 4.7 near Claude Opus 5.0 parity and noting Grok 4.8 training completion this week underscore ongoing internal iteration. Traders’ closely matched probabilities for September 16–18 reflect uncertainty over whether final refinements will conclude in the next few days or extend further amid xAI’s pattern of timeline adjustments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAucune version avant le 30 septembre 15.2%
23 septembre 11.3%
20 septembre 7.0%
24 septembre 5.0%
$11,894 Vol.
$11,894 Vol.
16 sept. 2026
16 septembre
38%
17 septembre
35%
18 septembre
37%
19 septembre
21%
20 septembre
8%
21 septembre
22%
22 septembre
3%
23 septembre
17%
24 septembre
18%
25 septembre
1%
26 septembre
1%
27 septembre
1%
28 septembre
7%
29 septembre
2%
30 septembre
1%
Aucune version avant le 30 septembre
15%
Aucune version avant le 30 septembre 15.2%
23 septembre 11.3%
20 septembre 7.0%
24 septembre 5.0%
$11,894 Vol.
$11,894 Vol.
16 sept. 2026
16 septembre
$215 Vol.
38%
17 septembre
$215 Vol.
35%
18 septembre
$437 Vol.
37%
19 septembre
$793 Vol.
21%
20 septembre
$680 Vol.
8%
21 septembre
$567 Vol.
22%
22 septembre
$353 Vol.
3%
23 septembre
$625 Vol.
17%
24 septembre
$513 Vol.
18%
25 septembre
$610 Vol.
1%
26 septembre
$541 Vol.
1%
27 septembre
$594 Vol.
1%
28 septembre
$461 Vol.
7%
29 septembre
$387 Vol.
2%
30 septembre
$611 Vol.
1%
Aucune version avant le 30 septembre
$575 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning to address response-length penalties and task persistence has kept release timing fluid, even as xAI faces competitive pressure from expected September updates at OpenAI and Meta. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX data, remains unreleased as of mid-September despite repeated earlier targets that slipped from late August into the first half of September. Recent Musk posts positioning Grok 4.7 near Claude Opus 5.0 parity and noting Grok 4.8 training completion this week underscore ongoing internal iteration. Traders’ closely matched probabilities for September 16–18 reflect uncertainty over whether final refinements will conclude in the next few days or extend further amid xAI’s pattern of timeline adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$11,894Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning to address response-length penalties and task persistence has kept release timing fluid, even as xAI faces competitive pressure from expected September updates at OpenAI and Meta. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX data, remains unreleased as of mid-September despite repeated earlier targets that slipped from late August into the first half of September. Recent Musk posts positioning Grok 4.7 near Claude Opus 5.0 parity and noting Grok 4.8 training completion this week underscore ongoing internal iteration. Traders’ closely matched probabilities for September 16–18 reflect uncertainty over whether final refinements will conclude in the next few days or extend further amid xAI’s pattern of timeline adjustments.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$11,894Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 11 announcement that Grok 4.7 requires additional reinforcement-learning tuning to address response-length penalties and task persistence has kept release timing fluid, even as xAI faces competitive pressure from expected September updates at OpenAI and Meta. The 2.1-trillion-parameter model, trained with supplemental SpaceX data, remains unreleased as of mid-September despite repeated earlier targets that slipped from late August into the first half of September. Recent Musk posts positioning Grok 4.7 near Claude Opus 5.0 parity and noting Grok 4.8 training completion this week underscore ongoing internal iteration. Traders’ closely matched probabilities for September 16–18 reflect uncertainty over whether final refinements will conclude in the next few days or extend further amid xAI’s pattern of timeline adjustments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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