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Politique·Brésil

Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo

icon for Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo
Politique·Brésil

Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo

Tarcísio de Freitas 97.6%

Fernando Haddad 1.8%

Erika Hilton <1%

Kim Kataguiri <1%

Polymarket

$293,154 Vol.

Tarcísio de Freitas 97.6%

Fernando Haddad 1.8%

Erika Hilton <1%

Kim Kataguiri <1%

Polymarket

$293,154 Vol.

icon for Tarcísio de Freitas

Tarcísio de Freitas

$133,881 Vol.

98%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$48,750 Vol.

2%

icon for Erika Hilton

Erika Hilton

$23,007 Vol.

<1%

icon for Kim Kataguiri

Kim Kataguiri

$76,849 Vol.

<1%

icon for Márcio França

Márcio França

$10,668 Vol.

<1%

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages as the incumbent Republicanos candidate seeking reelection. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and others in August 2026 show him at 40-52% in first-round simulations against Fernando Haddad (PT) at 27-37%, with smaller candidates like Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França registering minimal support. His lower rejection rates and voter approval of state administration have sustained this edge since earlier 2026 polls, while withdrawals by other potential contenders further consolidated support. The October 4 first-round vote and possible October 25 runoff could still shift outcomes if undecided voters or late campaign dynamics alter preferences.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$293,154
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling advantages as the incumbent Republicanos candidate seeking reelection. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and others in August 2026 show him at 40-52% in first-round simulations against Fernando Haddad (PT) at 27-37%, with smaller candidates like Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França registering minimal support. His lower rejection rates and voter approval of state administration have sustained this edge since earlier 2026 polls, while withdrawals by other potential contenders further consolidated support. The October 4 first-round vote and possible October 25 runoff could still shift outcomes if undecided voters or late campaign dynamics alter preferences.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$293,154
Date de fin
4 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Connexes

icon for Sergio Moro va-t-il gagner l'élection du gouverneur du Paraná ?

Sergio Moro va-t-il gagner l'élection du gouverneur du Paraná ?

80%
Oui
icon for Lucas Ribeiro va-t-il gagner l'élection du gouverneur de la Paraíba ?

Lucas Ribeiro va-t-il gagner l'élection du gouverneur de la Paraíba ?

81%
Oui
icon for Dr Furlan remportera-t-il l'élection au poste de gouverneur de l'Amapá en 2026 ?

Dr Furlan remportera-t-il l'élection au poste de gouverneur de l'Amapá en 2026 ?

93%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Tarcísio de Freitas » à 98%, suivi de « Fernando Haddad » à 2%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 98¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 98% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo » a généré $293.2K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 27, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo » est « Tarcísio de Freitas » à 98%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 98% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Fernando Haddad » à 2%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de São Paulo » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.