Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in Paraná for first-round presidential voting, backed by consistent late-August polling showing him at 41-44% against Lula at 23-31%, with other candidates in low single digits. The state’s southern conservative electorate, strong bolsonarista base, and antipetismo sentiment underpin this lead, reinforced by local alliances including with figures like Sergio Moro. High Lula rejection rates further consolidate right-leaning preferences. While the implied probability reflects these trends, outcomes could shift with last-minute campaign developments, turnout variations among undecided voters, or changes in opposition coalitions ahead of the October 4 vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPremier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place au Paraná
Premier tour de l'élection présidentielle brésilienne : 1ère place au Paraná
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 5.3%
Écrivain Augusto Cury <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
94%
Lula
5%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Zema
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 5.3%
Écrivain Augusto Cury <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 oct. 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,887 Vol.
94%
Lula
$264 Vol.
5%
Écrivain Augusto Cury
$451 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$272 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$402 Vol.
<1%
Vétérinaire Wilson Grassi
$370 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$349 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$446 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$447 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$446 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$446 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$480 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$458 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in Paraná for first-round presidential voting, backed by consistent late-August polling showing him at 41-44% against Lula at 23-31%, with other candidates in low single digits. The state’s southern conservative electorate, strong bolsonarista base, and antipetismo sentiment underpin this lead, reinforced by local alliances including with figures like Sergio Moro. High Lula rejection rates further consolidate right-leaning preferences. While the implied probability reflects these trends, outcomes could shift with last-minute campaign developments, turnout variations among undecided voters, or changes in opposition coalitions ahead of the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Marché ouvert : Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$7,720Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in Paraná for first-round presidential voting, backed by consistent late-August polling showing him at 41-44% against Lula at 23-31%, with other candidates in low single digits. The state’s southern conservative electorate, strong bolsonarista base, and antipetismo sentiment underpin this lead, reinforced by local alliances including with figures like Sergio Moro. High Lula rejection rates further consolidate right-leaning preferences. While the implied probability reflects these trends, outcomes could shift with last-minute campaign developments, turnout variations among undecided voters, or changes in opposition coalitions ahead of the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraná, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraná.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraná. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,720Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro holds a dominant position in Paraná for first-round presidential voting, backed by consistent late-August polling showing him at 41-44% against Lula at 23-31%, with other candidates in low single digits. The state’s southern conservative electorate, strong bolsonarista base, and antipetismo sentiment underpin this lead, reinforced by local alliances including with figures like Sergio Moro. High Lula rejection rates further consolidate right-leaning preferences. While the implied probability reflects these trends, outcomes could shift with last-minute campaign developments, turnout variations among undecided voters, or changes in opposition coalitions ahead of the October 4 vote.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Flavio Bolsonaro obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle brésilienne à São Paulo ?
70%
Oui
Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix au premier tour de l’élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?
90%
Oui
Lula obtiendra-t-il le plus de voix lors de la prochaine élection présidentielle au Brésil en provenance de Bahia ?
96%
Oui
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