Congressional action to raise or suspend the debt limit has consistently prevented default, with the most recent $5 trillion increase enacted in July 2025 pushing the statutory ceiling to $41.1 trillion. National debt reached $40 trillion by August 2026, yet Bipartisan Policy Center projections place the next limit contact between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of extraordinary measures that defer any X-date into 2028. Traders assign a 96.8 percent probability to no default by 2027, reflecting the dollar’s reserve status, Treasury cash management, and bipartisan incentives to avert higher borrowing costs and market instability. Even at these levels, prolonged partisan deadlock over appropriations or an unforeseen fiscal shock could still alter outcomes before year-end 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLes États-Unis font défaut sur la dette d'ici 2027 ?
Les États-Unis font défaut sur la dette d'ici 2027 ?
Oui
3% chance
$18,028 Vol.
$18,028 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$18,028 Vol.
$18,028 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congressional action to raise or suspend the debt limit has consistently prevented default, with the most recent $5 trillion increase enacted in July 2025 pushing the statutory ceiling to $41.1 trillion. National debt reached $40 trillion by August 2026, yet Bipartisan Policy Center projections place the next limit contact between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of extraordinary measures that defer any X-date into 2028. Traders assign a 96.8 percent probability to no default by 2027, reflecting the dollar’s reserve status, Treasury cash management, and bipartisan incentives to avert higher borrowing costs and market instability. Even at these levels, prolonged partisan deadlock over appropriations or an unforeseen fiscal shock could still alter outcomes before year-end 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$18,028Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congressional action to raise or suspend the debt limit has consistently prevented default, with the most recent $5 trillion increase enacted in July 2025 pushing the statutory ceiling to $41.1 trillion. National debt reached $40 trillion by August 2026, yet Bipartisan Policy Center projections place the next limit contact between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of extraordinary measures that defer any X-date into 2028. Traders assign a 96.8 percent probability to no default by 2027, reflecting the dollar’s reserve status, Treasury cash management, and bipartisan incentives to avert higher borrowing costs and market instability. Even at these levels, prolonged partisan deadlock over appropriations or an unforeseen fiscal shock could still alter outcomes before year-end 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$18,028Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Congressional action to raise or suspend the debt limit has consistently prevented default, with the most recent $5 trillion increase enacted in July 2025 pushing the statutory ceiling to $41.1 trillion. National debt reached $40 trillion by August 2026, yet Bipartisan Policy Center projections place the next limit contact between late winter and mid-summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of extraordinary measures that defer any X-date into 2028. Traders assign a 96.8 percent probability to no default by 2027, reflecting the dollar’s reserve status, Treasury cash management, and bipartisan incentives to avert higher borrowing costs and market instability. Even at these levels, prolonged partisan deadlock over appropriations or an unforeseen fiscal shock could still alter outcomes before year-end 2027.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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