USGS data establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth because no fault system reaches the required ~14,000 km rupture length with sufficient width and slip. The recorded maximum remains the 9.5 Valdivia event of 1960 on a roughly 1,000 km subduction zone; all subsequent great earthquakes have stayed below 9.3. Continuous global monitoring by the USGS shows no activity approaching this threshold, and historical recurrence patterns plus fault-length scaling confirm the upper bound near 9.5–9.6 under optimal conditions. Trader consensus at 98.9% “No” reflects this geophysical constraint rather than forecast uncertainty. Only an unprecedented revision in magnitude scaling or an undetected planetary-scale rupture could alter the outcome before 2027, both of which lack supporting evidence.