**August 2026 global temperatures are tracking well above prior August records, with preliminary estimates placing the monthly mean near 16.96 °C—roughly 0.13 °C warmer than the previous August high from 2024.** This positioning reflects record daily sea-surface temperatures (reaching 21.1 °C in late August per Copernicus ERA5 data), driven by long-term ocean warming from human-caused climate change amplified by a strengthening El Niño. With 97% of the month observed, ensemble forecasts and agency analyses show near-certainty for the warmest August on record. The market's 97.9% implied probability for first place aligns with this margin. Only substantial late revisions to reanalysis datasets or an unprecedented cooling anomaly in final days could shift the August-specific ranking, though such outcomes remain statistically remote given current observational consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 1 अगस्त, 2 अगस्त, 3 अगस्त रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म?
2026 1 अगस्त, 2 अगस्त, 3 अगस्त रिकॉर्ड पर सबसे गर्म?
1st hottest 97.9%
3rd hottest 2.0%
4th or lower 1.4%
2nd hottest <1%
नया
नया
30 अग, 2026
1st hottest
98%
2nd hottest
1%
3rd hottest
2%
4th or lower
1%
1st hottest 97.9%
3rd hottest 2.0%
4th or lower 1.4%
2nd hottest <1%
नया
नया
30 अग, 2026
1st hottest
$764 वॉल्यूम
98%
2nd hottest
$563 वॉल्यूम
1%
3rd hottest
$526 वॉल्यूम
2%
4th or lower
$415 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**August 2026 global temperatures are tracking well above prior August records, with preliminary estimates placing the monthly mean near 16.96 °C—roughly 0.13 °C warmer than the previous August high from 2024.** This positioning reflects record daily sea-surface temperatures (reaching 21.1 °C in late August per Copernicus ERA5 data), driven by long-term ocean warming from human-caused climate change amplified by a strengthening El Niño. With 97% of the month observed, ensemble forecasts and agency analyses show near-certainty for the warmest August on record. The market's 97.9% implied probability for first place aligns with this margin. Only substantial late revisions to reanalysis datasets or an unprecedented cooling anomaly in final days could shift the August-specific ranking, though such outcomes remain statistically remote given current observational consensus.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,268समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.**August 2026 global temperatures are tracking well above prior August records, with preliminary estimates placing the monthly mean near 16.96 °C—roughly 0.13 °C warmer than the previous August high from 2024.** This positioning reflects record daily sea-surface temperatures (reaching 21.1 °C in late August per Copernicus ERA5 data), driven by long-term ocean warming from human-caused climate change amplified by a strengthening El Niño. With 97% of the month observed, ensemble forecasts and agency analyses show near-certainty for the warmest August on record. The market's 97.9% implied probability for first place aligns with this margin. Only substantial late revisions to reanalysis datasets or an unprecedented cooling anomaly in final days could shift the August-specific ranking, though such outcomes remain statistically remote given current observational consensus.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
वॉल्यूम
$2,268समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...**August 2026 global temperatures are tracking well above prior August records, with preliminary estimates placing the monthly mean near 16.96 °C—roughly 0.13 °C warmer than the previous August high from 2024.** This positioning reflects record daily sea-surface temperatures (reaching 21.1 °C in late August per Copernicus ERA5 data), driven by long-term ocean warming from human-caused climate change amplified by a strengthening El Niño. With 97% of the month observed, ensemble forecasts and agency analyses show near-certainty for the warmest August on record. The market's 97.9% implied probability for first place aligns with this margin. Only substantial late revisions to reanalysis datasets or an unprecedented cooling anomaly in final days could shift the August-specific ranking, though such outcomes remain statistically remote given current observational consensus.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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