Trader consensus assigns a 99.6% implied probability to Very Strong Typhoon status for Saudel, reflecting the system's documented rapid intensification phase over warm western Pacific waters that produced sustained winds meeting official very strong criteria on the Japan Meteorological Agency scale. Official track and intensity data from agencies including JMA and JTWC confirm prior strengthening to this level before land interaction in China, with atmospheric conditions and ocean heat content providing the primary physical drivers. Recent satellite observations of the remnants near Hainan show limited redevelopment potential into a weak tropical storm, consistent with model guidance projecting only modest reintensification before dissipation. Realistic scenarios that could alter this positioning include unexpected vertical wind shear increases or prolonged land exposure that suppress further organization, though current forecast consensus indicates low likelihood of such shifts before resolution criteria are assessed.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाउष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान सौदेल कितना मजबूत होगा?
उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान सौदेल कितना मजबूत होगा?
बहुत शक्तिशाली चक्रवात 99.6%
ताफ़ून <1%
भीषण चक्रवात <1%
ट्रॉपिकल स्टॉर्म <1%
$10,660 वॉल्यूम
$10,660 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
ट्रॉपिकल स्टॉर्म
<1%
गंभीर उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान
<1%
ताफ़ून
1%
बहुत शक्तिशाली चक्रवात
100%
भीषण चक्रवात
<1%
बहुत शक्तिशाली चक्रवात 99.6%
ताफ़ून <1%
भीषण चक्रवात <1%
ट्रॉपिकल स्टॉर्म <1%
$10,660 वॉल्यूम
$10,660 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
ट्रॉपिकल स्टॉर्म
$663 वॉल्यूम
<1%
गंभीर उष्णकटिबंधीय तूफान
$606 वॉल्यूम
<1%
ताफ़ून
$1,570 वॉल्यूम
1%
बहुत शक्तिशाली चक्रवात
$3,631 वॉल्यूम
100%
भीषण चक्रवात
$4,190 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Trader consensus assigns a 99.6% implied probability to Very Strong Typhoon status for Saudel, reflecting the system's documented rapid intensification phase over warm western Pacific waters that produced sustained winds meeting official very strong criteria on the Japan Meteorological Agency scale. Official track and intensity data from agencies including JMA and JTWC confirm prior strengthening to this level before land interaction in China, with atmospheric conditions and ocean heat content providing the primary physical drivers. Recent satellite observations of the remnants near Hainan show limited redevelopment potential into a weak tropical storm, consistent with model guidance projecting only modest reintensification before dissipation. Realistic scenarios that could alter this positioning include unexpected vertical wind shear increases or prolonged land exposure that suppress further organization, though current forecast consensus indicates low likelihood of such shifts before resolution criteria are assessed.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$10,660समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.Trader consensus assigns a 99.6% implied probability to Very Strong Typhoon status for Saudel, reflecting the system's documented rapid intensification phase over warm western Pacific waters that produced sustained winds meeting official very strong criteria on the Japan Meteorological Agency scale. Official track and intensity data from agencies including JMA and JTWC confirm prior strengthening to this level before land interaction in China, with atmospheric conditions and ocean heat content providing the primary physical drivers. Recent satellite observations of the remnants near Hainan show limited redevelopment potential into a weak tropical storm, consistent with model guidance projecting only modest reintensification before dissipation. Realistic scenarios that could alter this positioning include unexpected vertical wind shear increases or prolonged land exposure that suppress further organization, though current forecast consensus indicates low likelihood of such shifts before resolution criteria are assessed.
This market resolves based on the maximum intensity that Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) reaches at any point on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026, using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
Resolution is by wind speed: take the highest 10-minute maximum sustained wind speed JMA reports for Saudel in any single advisory during its lifetime, and the market for the one category whose range contains that value resolves "Yes." The categories are defined solely by these inclusive knot ranges: Tropical Storm (34-47 kt), Severe Tropical Storm (48-63 kt), Typhoon (64-84 kt), Very Strong Typhoon (85-104 kt), and Violent Typhoon (105 kt or higher). These names label the wind-speed ranges; JMA's own strength wording need not appear in an advisory for a category to resolve. The peak must occur on or before the deadline, though the confirming JMA data may be published later.
Saudel is already a tropical storm, so its peak is at least "Tropical Storm". The wind speed in JMA's issued advisories is final and is not changed by any later reclassification or post-season best-track reanalysis. Where JMA advisory data is disputed, the values recorded by the Digital Typhoon database (National Institute of Informatics, Japan) for Typhoon 202618 (SAUDEL) are treated as conclusive evidence of what JMA reported. JMA is the primary and default resolution source.
वॉल्यूम
$10,660समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 20, 2026, 11:11 AM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a 99.6% implied probability to Very Strong Typhoon status for Saudel, reflecting the system's documented rapid intensification phase over warm western Pacific waters that produced sustained winds meeting official very strong criteria on the Japan Meteorological Agency scale. Official track and intensity data from agencies including JMA and JTWC confirm prior strengthening to this level before land interaction in China, with atmospheric conditions and ocean heat content providing the primary physical drivers. Recent satellite observations of the remnants near Hainan show limited redevelopment potential into a weak tropical storm, consistent with model guidance projecting only modest reintensification before dissipation. Realistic scenarios that could alter this positioning include unexpected vertical wind shear increases or prolonged land exposure that suppress further organization, though current forecast consensus indicates low likelihood of such shifts before resolution criteria are assessed.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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