Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have substantially damaged or destroyed key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of Iran’s pre-conflict stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent and leaving inspectors without access since June 2025. The IAEA reports no verified resumption of enrichment activities or centrifuge production at declared locations, while a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding aimed at inspections and stockpile downblending has collapsed amid disputes over verification protocols. Iranian officials continue to reaffirm that the program serves civilian purposes only and reject weapon development. These setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressure and the absence of detected weaponization steps, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear device is unlikely before 2027. Uncertainties around hidden material, covert reconstitution at undeclared sites, or shifts in Iranian policy if negotiations stall could still alter timelines.