The dismissal of the Department of Justice criminal investigation into Jerome Powell’s 2025 congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovation costs has anchored the 96.9% market-implied probability that he will not serve jail time before 2027. A federal judge quashed related subpoenas in March 2026, citing zero evidence of wrongdoing beyond policy disagreements, and the probe was formally closed in April with referral to the Fed Inspector General. Powell completed his term as Chair in May 2026 and remains a governor through 2028 under strong institutional protections. While tail risks such as renewed politically driven charges cannot be entirely excluded in a polarized environment, the absence of supporting evidence, judicial precedent, and historical norms for senior central bankers sustain trader consensus around near-certain resolution to “No.”