No megaquake has occurred through late August 2026, driving the 99.7% market-implied probability of “No.” Global catalogs from the USGS show M8.0+ events average roughly one to two per year and cluster along subduction zones such as the Ring of Fire, yet no instrumentally recorded magnitude meeting typical megaquake thresholds (M8.0–9.0+) has registered in the contract window. Current seismic monitoring indicates only background activity and aftershocks below resolution criteria, consistent with the low daily probability of an extreme event. While an unforeseen rupture on a major fault could still occur before midnight UTC, historical recurrence intervals and real-time strain data make such an outcome statistically remote.