**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through late August 2026, producing only four tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly) with zero hurricanes and an extremely low ACE of 3.6.** Official National Hurricane Center summaries confirm persistent high wind shear and dry air across the main development region, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. This environment has prevented any system from reaching the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold despite multiple named storms. The 97.7% market-implied probability for no August hurricane directly tracks these verified conditions as of August 31. A realistic challenge would require the current Gulf of America potential tropical cyclone to intensify far faster than forecast models indicate or an unexpected late-month tropical wave to organize rapidly—both low-probability events given ongoing shear.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में अटलांटिक में पहला तूफ़ान कब बनेगा?
2026 में अटलांटिक में पहला तूफ़ान कब बनेगा?
$17,568 वॉल्यूम
$17,568 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
27 अगस्त से 31 अगस्त, 2026
2%
अगस्त 2026 में कोई अटलांटिक तूफान नहीं बनेगा
98%
$17,568 वॉल्यूम
$17,568 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
27 अगस्त से 31 अगस्त, 2026
$3,373 वॉल्यूम
2%
अगस्त 2026 में कोई अटलांटिक तूफान नहीं बनेगा
$11,970 वॉल्यूम
98%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through late August 2026, producing only four tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly) with zero hurricanes and an extremely low ACE of 3.6.**
Official National Hurricane Center summaries confirm persistent high wind shear and dry air across the main development region, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. This environment has prevented any system from reaching the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold despite multiple named storms. The 97.7% market-implied probability for no August hurricane directly tracks these verified conditions as of August 31.
A realistic challenge would require the current Gulf of America potential tropical cyclone to intensify far faster than forecast models indicate or an unexpected late-month tropical wave to organize rapidly—both low-probability events given ongoing shear.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$17,568समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through late August 2026, producing only four tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly) with zero hurricanes and an extremely low ACE of 3.6.**
Official National Hurricane Center summaries confirm persistent high wind shear and dry air across the main development region, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. This environment has prevented any system from reaching the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold despite multiple named storms. The 97.7% market-implied probability for no August hurricane directly tracks these verified conditions as of August 31.
A realistic challenge would require the current Gulf of America potential tropical cyclone to intensify far faster than forecast models indicate or an unexpected late-month tropical wave to organize rapidly—both low-probability events given ongoing shear.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No". Exactly one bracket will resolve "Yes".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between August 31 and September 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in August 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on August 13, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
वॉल्यूम
$17,568समाप्ति तिथि
1 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 12, 2026, 11:07 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/रिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...**Strong El Niño conditions have suppressed Atlantic hurricane development through late August 2026, producing only four tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly) with zero hurricanes and an extremely low ACE of 3.6.** Official National Hurricane Center summaries confirm persistent high wind shear and dry air across the main development region, consistent with NOAA’s below-normal seasonal outlook. This environment has prevented any system from reaching the 64-knot Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold despite multiple named storms. The 97.7% market-implied probability for no August hurricane directly tracks these verified conditions as of August 31. A realistic challenge would require the current Gulf of America potential tropical cyclone to intensify far faster than forecast models indicate or an unexpected late-month tropical wave to organize rapidly—both low-probability events given ongoing shear.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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