**No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026**, according to NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists updated through September 2026. These systems track thousands of NEOs and show only low-probability virtual impacts in later decades, with none meeting the energy threshold this year. Recent small bolides, including 2026 RW1 and others under 1 meter, released far less energy and confirm that catalogued objects pose negligible risk. While meter-scale impactors occur several times per decade historically, refined orbits and expanded surveys have not identified any 2026 candidates capable of reaching 5 kt, sustaining the market-implied probability near 27% for a "Yes" outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
27% peluang
$314,144 Vol.
$314,144 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
27% peluang
$314,144 Vol.
$314,144 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026**, according to NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists updated through September 2026. These systems track thousands of NEOs and show only low-probability virtual impacts in later decades, with none meeting the energy threshold this year. Recent small bolides, including 2026 RW1 and others under 1 meter, released far less energy and confirm that catalogued objects pose negligible risk. While meter-scale impactors occur several times per decade historically, refined orbits and expanded surveys have not identified any 2026 candidates capable of reaching 5 kt, sustaining the market-implied probability near 27% for a "Yes" outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,144Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026**, according to NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists updated through September 2026. These systems track thousands of NEOs and show only low-probability virtual impacts in later decades, with none meeting the energy threshold this year. Recent small bolides, including 2026 RW1 and others under 1 meter, released far less energy and confirm that catalogued objects pose negligible risk. While meter-scale impactors occur several times per decade historically, refined orbits and expanded surveys have not identified any 2026 candidates capable of reaching 5 kt, sustaining the market-implied probability near 27% for a "Yes" outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$314,144Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No known near-Earth objects large enough for a 5 kt or greater airburst are on collision trajectories for 2026**, according to NASA CNEOS Sentry monitoring and ESA risk lists updated through September 2026. These systems track thousands of NEOs and show only low-probability virtual impacts in later decades, with none meeting the energy threshold this year. Recent small bolides, including 2026 RW1 and others under 1 meter, released far less energy and confirm that catalogued objects pose negligible risk. While meter-scale impactors occur several times per decade historically, refined orbits and expanded surveys have not identified any 2026 candidates capable of reaching 5 kt, sustaining the market-implied probability near 27% for a "Yes" outcome.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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