A rapidly intensifying 2026–2027 El Niño, already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2.7 °C with multi-model peaks projected near +3.6 to +4.0 °C, has driven August global temperatures higher through enhanced heat release from the equatorial Pacific. Combined with record ocean heat content and the long-term greenhouse-gas trend, this has positioned the month for an anomaly near 1.38–1.41 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline in leading datasets. Late-August observations from ERA5 and related ensembles show the month tracking well above prior forecasts, with daily sea-surface temperatures hitting new highs near 21.1 °C. Model consensus and the timing of peak El Niño influence reinforce trader focus on this narrow range ahead of final monthly resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 87%
1.42–1.45ºC 12%
1.34–1.37ºC 2.6%
>1.45ºC <1%
$18,114 Vol.
$18,114 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
3%
1.38–1.41ºC
87%
1.42–1.45ºC
12%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 87%
1.42–1.45ºC 12%
1.34–1.37ºC 2.6%
>1.45ºC <1%
$18,114 Vol.
$18,114 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$2,844 Vol.
3%
1.38–1.41ºC
$3,980 Vol.
87%
1.42–1.45ºC
$7,830 Vol.
12%
>1.45ºC
$1,341 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying 2026–2027 El Niño, already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2.7 °C with multi-model peaks projected near +3.6 to +4.0 °C, has driven August global temperatures higher through enhanced heat release from the equatorial Pacific. Combined with record ocean heat content and the long-term greenhouse-gas trend, this has positioned the month for an anomaly near 1.38–1.41 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline in leading datasets. Late-August observations from ERA5 and related ensembles show the month tracking well above prior forecasts, with daily sea-surface temperatures hitting new highs near 21.1 °C. Model consensus and the timing of peak El Niño influence reinforce trader focus on this narrow range ahead of final monthly resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$18,114Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A rapidly intensifying 2026–2027 El Niño, already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2.7 °C with multi-model peaks projected near +3.6 to +4.0 °C, has driven August global temperatures higher through enhanced heat release from the equatorial Pacific. Combined with record ocean heat content and the long-term greenhouse-gas trend, this has positioned the month for an anomaly near 1.38–1.41 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline in leading datasets. Late-August observations from ERA5 and related ensembles show the month tracking well above prior forecasts, with daily sea-surface temperatures hitting new highs near 21.1 °C. Model consensus and the timing of peak El Niño influence reinforce trader focus on this narrow range ahead of final monthly resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$18,114Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A rapidly intensifying 2026–2027 El Niño, already producing Niño 3.4 anomalies above +2.7 °C with multi-model peaks projected near +3.6 to +4.0 °C, has driven August global temperatures higher through enhanced heat release from the equatorial Pacific. Combined with record ocean heat content and the long-term greenhouse-gas trend, this has positioned the month for an anomaly near 1.38–1.41 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline in leading datasets. Late-August observations from ERA5 and related ensembles show the month tracking well above prior forecasts, with daily sea-surface temperatures hitting new highs near 21.1 °C. Model consensus and the timing of peak El Niño influence reinforce trader focus on this narrow range ahead of final monthly resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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