A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific— with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.7°C and forecasts pointing toward a very strong or record event peaking later in 2026—serves as the dominant near-term driver of trader consensus around the September 2026 global temperature anomaly. This event overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, elevating the likelihood of monthly values clustering near 1.3–1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with recent observations such as July 2026 at approximately 1.56°C. Narrowly spaced market-implied odds across adjacent bins reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise monthly outcome, arising from remaining intra-month variability, differences among seasonal model ensembles, the lagged global response to ENSO, and potential revisions in reanalysis datasets like ERA5. Updated forecasts and full-month observational releases over the coming weeks will likely sharpen resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
BARU
BARU
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
49%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
<1.30ºC 50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
BARU
BARU
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
49%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific— with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.7°C and forecasts pointing toward a very strong or record event peaking later in 2026—serves as the dominant near-term driver of trader consensus around the September 2026 global temperature anomaly. This event overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, elevating the likelihood of monthly values clustering near 1.3–1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with recent observations such as July 2026 at approximately 1.56°C. Narrowly spaced market-implied odds across adjacent bins reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise monthly outcome, arising from remaining intra-month variability, differences among seasonal model ensembles, the lagged global response to ENSO, and potential revisions in reanalysis datasets like ERA5. Updated forecasts and full-month observational releases over the coming weeks will likely sharpen resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific— with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.7°C and forecasts pointing toward a very strong or record event peaking later in 2026—serves as the dominant near-term driver of trader consensus around the September 2026 global temperature anomaly. This event overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, elevating the likelihood of monthly values clustering near 1.3–1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with recent observations such as July 2026 at approximately 1.56°C. Narrowly spaced market-implied odds across adjacent bins reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise monthly outcome, arising from remaining intra-month variability, differences among seasonal model ensembles, the lagged global response to ENSO, and potential revisions in reanalysis datasets like ERA5. Updated forecasts and full-month observational releases over the coming weeks will likely sharpen resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 10, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño in the equatorial Pacific— with Niño-3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.7°C and forecasts pointing toward a very strong or record event peaking later in 2026—serves as the dominant near-term driver of trader consensus around the September 2026 global temperature anomaly. This event overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, elevating the likelihood of monthly values clustering near 1.3–1.5°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with recent observations such as July 2026 at approximately 1.56°C. Narrowly spaced market-implied odds across adjacent bins reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise monthly outcome, arising from remaining intra-month variability, differences among seasonal model ensembles, the lagged global response to ENSO, and potential revisions in reanalysis datasets like ERA5. Updated forecasts and full-month observational releases over the coming weeks will likely sharpen resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan