**Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 reflects the month's climatological lull combined with limited early-month activity and uncertain late-month potential.** Historical averages hover near 66 confirmed tornadoes, driven primarily by occasional landfalling tropical cyclones in the South or strong mid-latitude fronts, rather than the spring peak regime of high instability and shear. As of September 9, National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center outlooks indicate only marginal to slight severe risks across the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley, with tornado probabilities capped at 2% in limited areas amid weak low-level flow and modest shear. Early September reports show sparse activity without widespread outbreaks, keeping totals on pace for a near-normal or below-normal month unless a late tropical system or persistent frontal pattern emerges. Market-implied odds near 50% for 125+ versus lower brackets capture this genuine uncertainty in steering patterns, moisture return, and any unexpected cyclone development before month-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
125 or more 50%
Under 25 50%
25 - 49 50%
50 - 74 50%
BARU
BARU
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
50%
25 - 49
50%
50 - 74
50%
75 - 124
50%
125 or more
50%
125 or more 50%
Under 25 50%
25 - 49 50%
50 - 74 50%
BARU
BARU
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$10 Vol.
50%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
50%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
50%
75 - 124
$0 Vol.
50%
125 or more
$25 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 reflects the month's climatological lull combined with limited early-month activity and uncertain late-month potential.** Historical averages hover near 66 confirmed tornadoes, driven primarily by occasional landfalling tropical cyclones in the South or strong mid-latitude fronts, rather than the spring peak regime of high instability and shear. As of September 9, National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center outlooks indicate only marginal to slight severe risks across the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley, with tornado probabilities capped at 2% in limited areas amid weak low-level flow and modest shear. Early September reports show sparse activity without widespread outbreaks, keeping totals on pace for a near-normal or below-normal month unless a late tropical system or persistent frontal pattern emerges. Market-implied odds near 50% for 125+ versus lower brackets capture this genuine uncertainty in steering patterns, moisture return, and any unexpected cyclone development before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$35Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 reflects the month's climatological lull combined with limited early-month activity and uncertain late-month potential.** Historical averages hover near 66 confirmed tornadoes, driven primarily by occasional landfalling tropical cyclones in the South or strong mid-latitude fronts, rather than the spring peak regime of high instability and shear. As of September 9, National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center outlooks indicate only marginal to slight severe risks across the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley, with tornado probabilities capped at 2% in limited areas amid weak low-level flow and modest shear. Early September reports show sparse activity without widespread outbreaks, keeping totals on pace for a near-normal or below-normal month unless a late tropical system or persistent frontal pattern emerges. Market-implied odds near 50% for 125+ versus lower brackets capture this genuine uncertainty in steering patterns, moisture return, and any unexpected cyclone development before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$35Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 15, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for US tornado counts in September 2026 reflects the month's climatological lull combined with limited early-month activity and uncertain late-month potential.** Historical averages hover near 66 confirmed tornadoes, driven primarily by occasional landfalling tropical cyclones in the South or strong mid-latitude fronts, rather than the spring peak regime of high instability and shear. As of September 9, National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center outlooks indicate only marginal to slight severe risks across the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley, with tornado probabilities capped at 2% in limited areas amid weak low-level flow and modest shear. Early September reports show sparse activity without widespread outbreaks, keeping totals on pace for a near-normal or below-normal month unless a late tropical system or persistent frontal pattern emerges. Market-implied odds near 50% for 125+ versus lower brackets capture this genuine uncertainty in steering patterns, moisture return, and any unexpected cyclone development before month-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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