Trader consensus on an 80.5% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems from the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. Historical records from NOAA, USGS, and global seismic networks show these thresholds occur infrequently, with combined annual probabilities typically below 25–30%. The Atlantic hurricane season remains active but current National Hurricane Center forecasts and steering patterns indicate limited intensification potential for U.S. landfalls meeting Category 5 criteria. Ongoing USGS monitoring reports no seismic activity approaching 8.5 magnitude, while volcanic observatories note no VEI 6 alerts. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, traders weigh the shrinking window against baseline rarity, though late-season model runs or unexpected seismic events could still shift odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
20% peluang
$246,739 Vol.
$246,739 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
20% peluang
$246,739 Vol.
$246,739 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on an 80.5% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems from the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. Historical records from NOAA, USGS, and global seismic networks show these thresholds occur infrequently, with combined annual probabilities typically below 25–30%. The Atlantic hurricane season remains active but current National Hurricane Center forecasts and steering patterns indicate limited intensification potential for U.S. landfalls meeting Category 5 criteria. Ongoing USGS monitoring reports no seismic activity approaching 8.5 magnitude, while volcanic observatories note no VEI 6 alerts. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, traders weigh the shrinking window against baseline rarity, though late-season model runs or unexpected seismic events could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$246,739Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on an 80.5% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems from the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. Historical records from NOAA, USGS, and global seismic networks show these thresholds occur infrequently, with combined annual probabilities typically below 25–30%. The Atlantic hurricane season remains active but current National Hurricane Center forecasts and steering patterns indicate limited intensification potential for U.S. landfalls meeting Category 5 criteria. Ongoing USGS monitoring reports no seismic activity approaching 8.5 magnitude, while volcanic observatories note no VEI 6 alerts. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, traders weigh the shrinking window against baseline rarity, though late-season model runs or unexpected seismic events could still shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$246,739Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on an 80.5% implied probability of “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems from the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through mid-September. Historical records from NOAA, USGS, and global seismic networks show these thresholds occur infrequently, with combined annual probabilities typically below 25–30%. The Atlantic hurricane season remains active but current National Hurricane Center forecasts and steering patterns indicate limited intensification potential for U.S. landfalls meeting Category 5 criteria. Ongoing USGS monitoring reports no seismic activity approaching 8.5 magnitude, while volcanic observatories note no VEI 6 alerts. With roughly 3.5 months remaining, traders weigh the shrinking window against baseline rarity, though late-season model runs or unexpected seismic events could still shift odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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