Trader consensus on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market assigns an 82% implied probability to "Yes" as of early September, reflecting the absence of any resolution-triggering events since the market opened in January. With roughly four months remaining until the December 31 deadline, none of the defined conditions have occurred, including the removal of President Trump, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, regime change in Iran or the United States invading that country, Russia attacking a NATO member, a Republican Senate supermajority, Bitcoin reaching $1 million or falling to $10,000, or major natural disasters such as a 9.0 earthquake or VEI-6 volcano. Ongoing developments like U.S.-Iran tensions, Ukraine peace discussions, and the November midterm elections have not crossed these high thresholds, supporting elevated odds for no qualifying outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTidak Ada yang Pernah Terjadi: 2026
Tidak Ada yang Pernah Terjadi: 2026
Ya
83% peluang
$773,879 Vol.
$773,879 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Ya
83% peluang
$773,879 Vol.
$773,879 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market assigns an 82% implied probability to "Yes" as of early September, reflecting the absence of any resolution-triggering events since the market opened in January. With roughly four months remaining until the December 31 deadline, none of the defined conditions have occurred, including the removal of President Trump, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, regime change in Iran or the United States invading that country, Russia attacking a NATO member, a Republican Senate supermajority, Bitcoin reaching $1 million or falling to $10,000, or major natural disasters such as a 9.0 earthquake or VEI-6 volcano. Ongoing developments like U.S.-Iran tensions, Ukraine peace discussions, and the November midterm elections have not crossed these high thresholds, supporting elevated odds for no qualifying outcomes.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$773,879Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market assigns an 82% implied probability to "Yes" as of early September, reflecting the absence of any resolution-triggering events since the market opened in January. With roughly four months remaining until the December 31 deadline, none of the defined conditions have occurred, including the removal of President Trump, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, regime change in Iran or the United States invading that country, Russia attacking a NATO member, a Republican Senate supermajority, Bitcoin reaching $1 million or falling to $10,000, or major natural disasters such as a 9.0 earthquake or VEI-6 volcano. Ongoing developments like U.S.-Iran tensions, Ukraine peace discussions, and the November midterm elections have not crossed these high thresholds, supporting elevated odds for no qualifying outcomes.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$773,879Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market assigns an 82% implied probability to "Yes" as of early September, reflecting the absence of any resolution-triggering events since the market opened in January. With roughly four months remaining until the December 31 deadline, none of the defined conditions have occurred, including the removal of President Trump, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, regime change in Iran or the United States invading that country, Russia attacking a NATO member, a Republican Senate supermajority, Bitcoin reaching $1 million or falling to $10,000, or major natural disasters such as a 9.0 earthquake or VEI-6 volcano. Ongoing developments like U.S.-Iran tensions, Ukraine peace discussions, and the November midterm elections have not crossed these high thresholds, supporting elevated odds for no qualifying outcomes.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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