The strong Democratic lean of California's 14th congressional district, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent primary results, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic winner for the November 2026 general election. The seat became open after incumbent Eric Swalwell resigned in April 2026 amid misconduct allegations, triggering a special election that Aisha Wahab won in the August runoff against fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez. In the June top-two primary for the full term, Wahab and Hernandez again advanced ahead of Republican candidates who drew under 15 percent combined, consistent with the district's East Bay voter base and historical margins exceeding 20 points. Low Republican fundraising and turnout in recent cycles reinforce the positioning. A late scandal involving the Democratic nominee, unexpected national political shift, or unusually high Republican mobilization could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-14 House Election Winner
CA-14 House Election Winner
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
<1%
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$14,006 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$21,756 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 14th congressional district, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent primary results, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic winner for the November 2026 general election. The seat became open after incumbent Eric Swalwell resigned in April 2026 amid misconduct allegations, triggering a special election that Aisha Wahab won in the August runoff against fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez. In the June top-two primary for the full term, Wahab and Hernandez again advanced ahead of Republican candidates who drew under 15 percent combined, consistent with the district's East Bay voter base and historical margins exceeding 20 points. Low Republican fundraising and turnout in recent cycles reinforce the positioning. A late scandal involving the Democratic nominee, unexpected national political shift, or unusually high Republican mobilization could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$35,762Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of California's 14th congressional district, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent primary results, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic winner for the November 2026 general election. The seat became open after incumbent Eric Swalwell resigned in April 2026 amid misconduct allegations, triggering a special election that Aisha Wahab won in the August runoff against fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez. In the June top-two primary for the full term, Wahab and Hernandez again advanced ahead of Republican candidates who drew under 15 percent combined, consistent with the district's East Bay voter base and historical margins exceeding 20 points. Low Republican fundraising and turnout in recent cycles reinforce the positioning. A late scandal involving the Democratic nominee, unexpected national political shift, or unusually high Republican mobilization could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,762Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of California's 14th congressional district, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent primary results, underpins trader consensus around a Democratic winner for the November 2026 general election. The seat became open after incumbent Eric Swalwell resigned in April 2026 amid misconduct allegations, triggering a special election that Aisha Wahab won in the August runoff against fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez. In the June top-two primary for the full term, Wahab and Hernandez again advanced ahead of Republican candidates who drew under 15 percent combined, consistent with the district's East Bay voter base and historical margins exceeding 20 points. Low Republican fundraising and turnout in recent cycles reinforce the positioning. A late scandal involving the Democratic nominee, unexpected national political shift, or unusually high Republican mobilization could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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