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Politik·Brasil

Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2

icon for Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2
Politik·Brasil

Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2

Flávio Bolsonaro 86%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 12.2%

Augusto Cury 1.7%

Renan Santos <1%

Polymarket

$5,757,372 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 86%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 12.2%

Augusto Cury 1.7%

Renan Santos <1%

Polymarket

$5,757,372 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$444,404 Vol.

86%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$363,834 Vol.

12%

icon for Augusto Cury

Augusto Cury

$88,937 Vol.

2%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,183,462 Vol.

1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$350,356 Vol.

<1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$175,876 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$781,694 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$148,020 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$115,044 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$246,884 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$187,647 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$175,920 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$719,200 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$401,600 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$199,697 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$118,306 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$20,972 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$35,519 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus to finish second in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote.** Recent AtlasIntel, PoderData, Datafolha, and Nexus surveys show President Lula da Silva (PT) ahead with 38–43 percent while Flávio (PL) holds 33–37 percent, placing him well clear of fragmented challengers such as Augusto Cury (Avante), Renan Santos (Missão), Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, who remain in the low-to-mid single digits. The Liberal Party nominee has consolidated right-wing support as the standard-bearer for Jair Bolsonaro’s base after his father’s ineligibility and conviction. The official campaign period, which began August 16 with free electoral broadcasts starting August 28, has not altered this ordering. Traders therefore price Flávio as the near-certain runner-up absent a late surge by any third candidate capable of overtaking him before election day.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,757,372
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus to finish second in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote.** Recent AtlasIntel, PoderData, Datafolha, and Nexus surveys show President Lula da Silva (PT) ahead with 38–43 percent while Flávio (PL) holds 33–37 percent, placing him well clear of fragmented challengers such as Augusto Cury (Avante), Renan Santos (Missão), Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema, who remain in the low-to-mid single digits. The Liberal Party nominee has consolidated right-wing support as the standard-bearer for Jair Bolsonaro’s base after his father’s ineligibility and conviction. The official campaign period, which began August 16 with free electoral broadcasts starting August 28, has not altered this ordering. Traders therefore price Flávio as the near-certain runner-up absent a late surge by any third candidate capable of overtaking him before election day.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,757,372
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Terkait

icon for Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

50%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?

86%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná?

94%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 18 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Flávio Bolsonaro" di 86%, diikuti oleh "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 12%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 86¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 86% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2" telah menghasilkan $5.8 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 11, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2," jelajahi 18 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2" adalah "Flávio Bolsonaro" di 86%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 86% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" di 12%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemilihan Presiden Brasil Putaran Pertama: Juara 2" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.