**Erdoğan’s current presidential term runs through 2028 under Turkey’s executive system, with scheduled elections set for May of that year.** The ruling AKP and its MHP ally have repeatedly stated they intend to hold the vote on time, and recent statements from coalition figures continue to position him as their candidate for 2028. Opposition fragmentation, including court rulings that weakened the CHP and splinter parties forming in 2026, has reduced near-term pressure on the incumbent. No major legislative moves, health developments, or institutional challenges have emerged that would force an early exit or snap election before the end of 2026. Traders price the “No” outcome at 94.5 percent because constitutional term rules, the election calendar, and the current balance of power make removal by the deadline improbable absent unforeseen events.