Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the open-weight Kimi K3 (2.8T parameters) drove recent sentiment, delivering HLE scores of 46.9–56% across leaderboards—competitive with or ahead of many peers but trailing Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5/Fable 5 (55.5–64.7%) and GPT-5 variants. Kimi’s emphasis on agentic/tool-augmented reasoning, 1M-token context, and native vision has narrowed the gap on expert-level questions in math, science, and coding, with earlier K2.6 variants already posting strong tool-using results near 54%. Traders focus on whether Moonshot or rivals can ship further 2026 iterations that push Kimi past the current closed-model frontier before year-end, given rapid Chinese open-model progress and benchmark headroom remaining below 65%.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$34,640 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
89%
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55%
55%+
35%
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13%
65%+
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$34,640 Vol.
45%+
$8,758 Vol.
89%
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$12,479 Vol.
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$4,922 Vol.
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$8,027 Vol.
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$454 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the open-weight Kimi K3 (2.8T parameters) drove recent sentiment, delivering HLE scores of 46.9–56% across leaderboards—competitive with or ahead of many peers but trailing Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5/Fable 5 (55.5–64.7%) and GPT-5 variants. Kimi’s emphasis on agentic/tool-augmented reasoning, 1M-token context, and native vision has narrowed the gap on expert-level questions in math, science, and coding, with earlier K2.6 variants already posting strong tool-using results near 54%. Traders focus on whether Moonshot or rivals can ship further 2026 iterations that push Kimi past the current closed-model frontier before year-end, given rapid Chinese open-model progress and benchmark headroom remaining below 65%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$34,640Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the open-weight Kimi K3 (2.8T parameters) drove recent sentiment, delivering HLE scores of 46.9–56% across leaderboards—competitive with or ahead of many peers but trailing Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5/Fable 5 (55.5–64.7%) and GPT-5 variants. Kimi’s emphasis on agentic/tool-augmented reasoning, 1M-token context, and native vision has narrowed the gap on expert-level questions in math, science, and coding, with earlier K2.6 variants already posting strong tool-using results near 54%. Traders focus on whether Moonshot or rivals can ship further 2026 iterations that push Kimi past the current closed-model frontier before year-end, given rapid Chinese open-model progress and benchmark headroom remaining below 65%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$34,640Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 launch of the open-weight Kimi K3 (2.8T parameters) drove recent sentiment, delivering HLE scores of 46.9–56% across leaderboards—competitive with or ahead of many peers but trailing Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5/Fable 5 (55.5–64.7%) and GPT-5 variants. Kimi’s emphasis on agentic/tool-augmented reasoning, 1M-token context, and native vision has narrowed the gap on expert-level questions in math, science, and coding, with earlier K2.6 variants already posting strong tool-using results near 54%. Traders focus on whether Moonshot or rivals can ship further 2026 iterations that push Kimi past the current closed-model frontier before year-end, given rapid Chinese open-model progress and benchmark headroom remaining below 65%.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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