Google’s delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship remains the central driver of trader sentiment, with the model teased at I/O in May 2026 for a June launch that slipped to July and still lacks a public release as of early September. Internal benchmarks reportedly fell short on coding and long-horizon agentic tasks, prompting extended partner testing on platforms like Antigravity and LMArena while Google iterates rapidly on lighter Flash variants, including the September 2 release of Gemini 3.8 Flash. Pretraining for the more ambitious Gemini 4 has cleared early milestones since July, yet post-training work continues without a disclosed timeline. These factors underpin the market’s elevated probability of no Pro-model release by November 1, reflecting Google’s pattern of prioritizing quality and competitive parity in frontier LLMs over fixed schedules.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$1,263,080 Vol.
Sep 15, 2026
September 15
3%
September 30
14%
October 31
64%
October 15
30%
$1,263,080 Vol.
September 15
$12,131 Vol.
3%
September 30
$79,154 Vol.
14%
October 31
$13,734 Vol.
64%
October 15
$1,978 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship remains the central driver of trader sentiment, with the model teased at I/O in May 2026 for a June launch that slipped to July and still lacks a public release as of early September. Internal benchmarks reportedly fell short on coding and long-horizon agentic tasks, prompting extended partner testing on platforms like Antigravity and LMArena while Google iterates rapidly on lighter Flash variants, including the September 2 release of Gemini 3.8 Flash. Pretraining for the more ambitious Gemini 4 has cleared early milestones since July, yet post-training work continues without a disclosed timeline. These factors underpin the market’s elevated probability of no Pro-model release by November 1, reflecting Google’s pattern of prioritizing quality and competitive parity in frontier LLMs over fixed schedules.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 17, 2026, 9:16 AM ET
Volume
$1,263,080Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 9:16 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship remains the central driver of trader sentiment, with the model teased at I/O in May 2026 for a June launch that slipped to July and still lacks a public release as of early September. Internal benchmarks reportedly fell short on coding and long-horizon agentic tasks, prompting extended partner testing on platforms like Antigravity and LMArena while Google iterates rapidly on lighter Flash variants, including the September 2 release of Gemini 3.8 Flash. Pretraining for the more ambitious Gemini 4 has cleared early milestones since July, yet post-training work continues without a disclosed timeline. These factors underpin the market’s elevated probability of no Pro-model release by November 1, reflecting Google’s pattern of prioritizing quality and competitive parity in frontier LLMs over fixed schedules.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,263,080Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 9:16 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google’s delayed Gemini 3.5 Pro flagship remains the central driver of trader sentiment, with the model teased at I/O in May 2026 for a June launch that slipped to July and still lacks a public release as of early September. Internal benchmarks reportedly fell short on coding and long-horizon agentic tasks, prompting extended partner testing on platforms like Antigravity and LMArena while Google iterates rapidly on lighter Flash variants, including the September 2 release of Gemini 3.8 Flash. Pretraining for the more ambitious Gemini 4 has cleared early milestones since July, yet post-training work continues without a disclosed timeline. These factors underpin the market’s elevated probability of no Pro-model release by November 1, reflecting Google’s pattern of prioritizing quality and competitive parity in frontier LLMs over fixed schedules.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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