Meta's internal July 2026 town hall claims that the still-training Watermelon model matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its Muse Spark predecessor have shaped trader views on release timing. August reporting from internal documents set an October target for the frontier large language model, positioning it as a competitive response to OpenAI and Anthropic in coding and agentic capabilities amid Meta's multi-billion-dollar infrastructure push. No public benchmarks, independent evaluations, or official confirmation have emerged since, leaving uncertainty around exact release criteria and potential delays from safety reviews or integration work. Traders are watching for developer conferences, earnings commentary, or further executive updates that could confirm or shift the October window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$12,855 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
5%
October 31
74%
November 30
94%
$12,855 Vol.
September 30
$3,660 Vol.
5%
October 31
$6,507 Vol.
74%
November 30
$2,887 Vol.
94%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal July 2026 town hall claims that the still-training Watermelon model matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its Muse Spark predecessor have shaped trader views on release timing. August reporting from internal documents set an October target for the frontier large language model, positioning it as a competitive response to OpenAI and Anthropic in coding and agentic capabilities amid Meta's multi-billion-dollar infrastructure push. No public benchmarks, independent evaluations, or official confirmation have emerged since, leaving uncertainty around exact release criteria and potential delays from safety reviews or integration work. Traders are watching for developer conferences, earnings commentary, or further executive updates that could confirm or shift the October window.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$12,855Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's internal July 2026 town hall claims that the still-training Watermelon model matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its Muse Spark predecessor have shaped trader views on release timing. August reporting from internal documents set an October target for the frontier large language model, positioning it as a competitive response to OpenAI and Anthropic in coding and agentic capabilities amid Meta's multi-billion-dollar infrastructure push. No public benchmarks, independent evaluations, or official confirmation have emerged since, leaving uncertainty around exact release criteria and potential delays from safety reviews or integration work. Traders are watching for developer conferences, earnings commentary, or further executive updates that could confirm or shift the October window.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,855Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta's internal July 2026 town hall claims that the still-training Watermelon model matches OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its Muse Spark predecessor have shaped trader views on release timing. August reporting from internal documents set an October target for the frontier large language model, positioning it as a competitive response to OpenAI and Anthropic in coding and agentic capabilities amid Meta's multi-billion-dollar infrastructure push. No public benchmarks, independent evaluations, or official confirmation have emerged since, leaving uncertainty around exact release criteria and potential delays from safety reviews or integration work. Traders are watching for developer conferences, earnings commentary, or further executive updates that could confirm or shift the October window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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