Louisiana's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+19 to R+20 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House Majority Leader first elected in 2008, faces limited primary opposition from fellow Republican Randall Arrington and Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett under the state's majority-vote system primary on November 3, 2026. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, supported by Scalise's substantial fundraising edge. Trader consensus on the market assigns Republicans a 96% implied probability of victory. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major scandal, health event, or unusually low Republican turnout that forces an unexpected runoff dynamic.
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LA-01 House Election Winner
$52,244 Vol.
$52,244 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
96%
Democratic Party
5%
$52,244 Vol.
$52,244 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$22,399 Vol.
96%
Democratic Party
$29,844 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+19 to R+20 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House Majority Leader first elected in 2008, faces limited primary opposition from fellow Republican Randall Arrington and Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett under the state's majority-vote system primary on November 3, 2026. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, supported by Scalise's substantial fundraising edge. Trader consensus on the market assigns Republicans a 96% implied probability of victory. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major scandal, health event, or unusually low Republican turnout that forces an unexpected runoff dynamic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$52,244Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Louisiana's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+19 to R+20 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House Majority Leader first elected in 2008, faces limited primary opposition from fellow Republican Randall Arrington and Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett under the state's majority-vote system primary on November 3, 2026. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, supported by Scalise's substantial fundraising edge. Trader consensus on the market assigns Republicans a 96% implied probability of victory. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major scandal, health event, or unusually low Republican turnout that forces an unexpected runoff dynamic.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,244Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Louisiana's 1st congressional district maintains a strong Republican partisan lean, reflected in its R+19 to R+20 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates in recent cycles. Incumbent Steve Scalise, the House Majority Leader first elected in 2008, faces limited primary opposition from fellow Republican Randall Arrington and Democratic challenger Lauren Jewett under the state's majority-vote system primary on November 3, 2026. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the seat as Solid or Safe Republican, supported by Scalise's substantial fundraising edge. Trader consensus on the market assigns Republicans a 96% implied probability of victory. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include a major scandal, health event, or unusually low Republican turnout that forces an unexpected runoff dynamic.
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