**Bob Onder holds a commanding lead in the MO-03 House race as the Republican incumbent in a district with a strong Republican lean (R+10 to R+13 PVI).** He secured his party's nomination in the August 4, 2026, primary by defeating challenger John Fraser 66-34 percent, while Democrat Bethany Mann won her primary to set up a rematch of the 2024 contest. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Onder's 2024 victory margin of roughly 26 points in the current or similar boundaries. Limited recent polling and the absence of major scandals or shifts in voter sentiment reinforce trader consensus around the incumbent's position ahead of the November 3 general election. A late national wave against Republicans, significant court-driven boundary changes from ongoing redistricting litigation, or an unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability factors given the district's fundamentals.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMO-03 House Election Winner
MO-03 House Election Winner
$31,311 Vol.
$31,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Bob Onder (R)
93%
Bethany Mann (D)
5%
$31,311 Vol.
$31,311 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Bob Onder (R)
$13,025 Vol.
93%
Bethany Mann (D)
$18,286 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Bob Onder holds a commanding lead in the MO-03 House race as the Republican incumbent in a district with a strong Republican lean (R+10 to R+13 PVI).** He secured his party's nomination in the August 4, 2026, primary by defeating challenger John Fraser 66-34 percent, while Democrat Bethany Mann won her primary to set up a rematch of the 2024 contest. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Onder's 2024 victory margin of roughly 26 points in the current or similar boundaries. Limited recent polling and the absence of major scandals or shifts in voter sentiment reinforce trader consensus around the incumbent's position ahead of the November 3 general election. A late national wave against Republicans, significant court-driven boundary changes from ongoing redistricting litigation, or an unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability factors given the district's fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$31,311Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Bob Onder holds a commanding lead in the MO-03 House race as the Republican incumbent in a district with a strong Republican lean (R+10 to R+13 PVI).** He secured his party's nomination in the August 4, 2026, primary by defeating challenger John Fraser 66-34 percent, while Democrat Bethany Mann won her primary to set up a rematch of the 2024 contest. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Onder's 2024 victory margin of roughly 26 points in the current or similar boundaries. Limited recent polling and the absence of major scandals or shifts in voter sentiment reinforce trader consensus around the incumbent's position ahead of the November 3 general election. A late national wave against Republicans, significant court-driven boundary changes from ongoing redistricting litigation, or an unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability factors given the district's fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,311Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Bob Onder holds a commanding lead in the MO-03 House race as the Republican incumbent in a district with a strong Republican lean (R+10 to R+13 PVI).** He secured his party's nomination in the August 4, 2026, primary by defeating challenger John Fraser 66-34 percent, while Democrat Bethany Mann won her primary to set up a rematch of the 2024 contest. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with Onder's 2024 victory margin of roughly 26 points in the current or similar boundaries. Limited recent polling and the absence of major scandals or shifts in voter sentiment reinforce trader consensus around the incumbent's position ahead of the November 3 general election. A late national wave against Republicans, significant court-driven boundary changes from ongoing redistricting litigation, or an unexpected turnout surge could narrow the gap, though these remain low-probability factors given the district's fundamentals.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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