Russia’s State Duma elections, held September 18–20 2026, allocate half their 450 seats through a nationwide party-list proportional system requiring parties to surpass a 5% threshold. Yabloko, the sole registered anti-war party, was initially approved by the Central Election Commission in July but removed by Supreme Court ruling in mid-August after private and public polls showed its support climbing to 5–6% nationally and higher in major cities. The decision followed a brief Kremlin experiment registering the party to channel protest votes. With Yabloko absent from the federal list, traders assign near-certain probability it cannot meet the threshold. Limited single-mandate candidacies remain in some districts, yet these do not affect the proportional ballot and face separate disqualifications. Late appeals or procedural reversals remain theoretically possible before vote certification but lack precedent under current conditions.