Recent energy price surges tied to geopolitical tensions have anchored trader expectations for the September 2026 CPI around 3.4–3.6% year-over-year, with the 3.5% outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 30.5%. August CPI printed at 3.4%, matching July, while the Cleveland Fed nowcast stands at 3.43%; however, sharp gasoline increases and spillovers into goods and services pricing introduce upside risks. Elevated consumer inflation expectations, now at 4.6% for the coming year, alongside sticky core services and moderating but still above-target core goods trends, sustain the tight clustering of probabilities. The September release, due mid-October, will hinge on energy volatility and any further supply-chain effects.